Tubelight Box Office Prediction

It’s that time of the year when the audience anticipate a Salman Khan film and the megastar hasn’t disappointed his fans in the last 7 out of 8 years. His record is incredible, arguably the best run the industry has ever seen.

Wanted, Dabangg, Bodyguard, Ek Tha Tiger, Kick, Bajrangi Bhaijaan and Sultan. Not a single film has disappointed at the box office. In fact, business has grown over the years with the last two Eid releases giving the industry two major 300 crore plus grossers.

Lifetime records aside, it’s the opening day collection of Salman Khan films during Eid that has managed to shock and surprise the trade on several occasions.

Check out some of those records; the opening day collections of Dabangg, Bodyguard, Ek Tha Tiger and then Sultan were the best of the lot. Unsurprisingly, all these films released on the Post-Eid holiday, except Sultan which was a partial holiday release.

Movie	Screens	Opening Day	Year-on-Year Growth %
Wanted (2009)	1400	5.2 cr
Dabangg (2010)	1900	15.1 cr*	+ 190%
Bodyguard (2011)	2800	21.4 cr*	+ 42%
Ek Tha Tiger (2012)	3400	32.9 cr*	+ 54%
Chennai Express (2013)	3600	33.1 cr*	+ 0%
Kick (2014)	4000	26.5 cr	- 20%
Bajrangi Bhaijaan (2015)	4100	27.25 cr	+ 3%
Sultan (2016)	4400	36.54 cr*	+ 34%

This year, Salman reunites with Kabir Khan, a director who has given him two of his biggest blockbusters – Ek Tha Tiger and Bajrangi Bhaijaan. Their third film together also tries to cash-in on ‘human emotions’, which worked big time in their last film together.

Box office Factors that are in favour of the film:

• Eid release; the audience now save money to watch Salman films during Eid.
• Human emotions; if emotions click, the film can work big and possibly even challenge the collections of some of the biggest grossers like Bajrangi Bhaijaan, PK and Dangal.
• Kabir Khan and Salman Khan reunite after two successful outings, their films together have always worked big.
• Two open weeks; the film is releasing towards the end of Ramzan, the holiday for Eid will be on Monday. This gives the film a chance to take a solid start during the weekend, with business eventually hitting the top gear on Monday and Tuesday – if the content of the film finds acceptance. This could well turn out to be a negative if the film doesn’t find acceptance.

Factors that are against the film:

• The big hype of an event film is missing and there are several reasons for this (which we have already discussed in several articles and QnAs).
• Tubelight lacks a popular female star and other commercial factors that ensure a ‘bumper opening’ (larger-than-life hero, massy action, romance etc). In this aspect, the film is a lot like Aamir Khan’s Dangal which released during Christmas last year.
• The response to the teaser, trailer and songs is fair, but cannot be compared to the incredible response that other Eid releases in recent times have received.

IndicineFBO: We expect ‘Tubelight’ to collect Rs 27 crore on its opening day at the box office.

Detailed Prediction (can be a bit of hit-and-miss, but sums up the expectations):

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• Day 1 – 28 cr
• Day 2 – 32 cr
• Day 3 – 35 cr
• First Week – 190 cr
• Final – 325 cr+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Day 1 – 27 cr
• Day 2 – 29 cr
• Day 3 – 31 cr
• First Week – 165 cr
• Final – 250 cr (Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Day 1 – 27 cr
• Day 2 – 28 cr
• Day 3 – 29 cr
• First Week – 140 cr
• Lifetime – 175 cr (Below Average / Flop)