Talaash HIT or FLOP – Box Office Predictions

Aamir Khan’s last commercial failure was way back in 2005 when his much-hyped comeback film Mangal Pandey released in theatres. Although the film opened to a bumper response and eventually recovered it’s investment, a few distributors lost money. Since then, the superstar has delivered films that have not only been hugely successful commercially, but also left the critics impressed.

In 2008, Aamir’s Ghajini started the trend of South Indian remakes and was the first film to cross 100 crores. His last release 3 Idiots, had the most footfalls for any film in the last decade (in the post-Gadar era).

So with huge expectations, Aamir Khan returns with a suspense thriller titled ‘Talaash’ from the makers of Dil Chahta Hai. Considering the genre of the film, pre-release hype, screen count and release timing (non-holiday), records are unlikely to be smashed this time around. Instead, Talaash is more likely to open well and then grow on word-of-mouth publicity.

The advance booking for the opening day has been good, so we expect the first day collections to be around 14 crores. If the WOM is good, Sunday business could be 18-19 or more!

Below is our detailed HIT or FLOP Box Office Prediction for Talaash

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• Weekend (3 day) – 48 crores
• Weekdays (Mon-Thu) – 38 crores
• Week 1 –  86 crores
• Final – 140 crores+ (Superhit / Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Weekend (3 day) – 44 crores
• Weekdays (Mon-Thu) – 27 crores
• Week 1 –  71 crores
• Final – 105-110 crores (HIT)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Weekend (3 day) – 40 crores
• Weekdays (Mon-Thu) – 17 crores
• Week 1 –  57 crores
• Final – < 75 crores (Below Average / Flop)

Amongst the recently released multiplex films – the response to Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara (90 cr) and Barfi (106 cr) was very positive, while Don 2 (106 cr) and Cocktail (76 cr) were mixed. So Talaash with higher screen count should easily manage business in excess of 135-140 crore with a similar response.

If Talaash clicks with the audience, then the film could go from strength-to-strength after the first weekend, much like 3 Idiots. It might also affect the multiplex business of Khiladi 786 which releases a week later on December 7th. Else, the Akshay Kumar starrer will get more shows at plexes and will be the first choice for movie goers.

What do you think? Will Talaash work at the box office? HIT or FLOP? Post your predictions below.