Shivaay, ADHM Box Office Prediction

There are two big releases this Diwali weekend. Ajay Devgn’s Shivaay and Karan Johar’s Ae Dil Hai Mushkil. The former is Ajay’s biggest film to date - a film on which he has invested nearly 2 years of his life. He’s the actor, the only recognisable face, the director and also the producer!

The other film marks the return of a celebrated director, who gave the industry three stars through his 2012 film ‘Student Of The Year’.

It’s been the most controversial clash the industry has seen, yet come Friday morning, it’s the audience verdict that’s going to be supreme. Nothing else matters, except the opinion of the paying public.

Factors in favour of Shivaay:

• The well-received first trailer.
• Scores over the competition when it comes to scale and visual appeal.
• Action will be a major draw for the single-screen audience.
• Ajay returns more than a year after his last film ‘Drishyam’, which was very well received.

Factors against Shivaay:

• A big question mark over Ajay Devgn the director.
• Poor response to all the promos after the first trailer.

Factors in favour of ADHM:

• Formidable star cast – Ranbir Kapoor, Anushka Sharma and Aishwarya Rai Bachchan.
• Karan Johar as director (adds tremendous value in India, huge factor overseas)
• Chartbuster music, one of the best music albums of 2016.
• Trailer received mixed response, but the remaining promos have generated interest.

Factors against ADHM

• Ranbir Kapoor’s lean run – his last 4 films have flopped.
• Limited appeal at smaller centres.

One factor that’s against both films is the fact that the audience expect a ‘fun popcorn entertainer’ during Diwali and both films don’t exactly fall in that category. This could also be the reason why the hype that we usually associate with Diwali films is missing this time around.

IndicineFBO: We expect ‘Ae Dil Hai Mushkil’ to collect Rs 12.4 crore, the advance booking is solid and the film will be less affected by the ‘Pre-Diwali’ period. Since it’s a film that’s expected to perform better at urban centres, the higher ticket prices should help the film edge out ‘Shivaay’ on the first day.

The response to the advance booking of ‘Shivaay’ has been underwhelming for such a big film, but the true test will come Monday onwards. We expect ‘Shivaay’ to collect 10.7 crore on Day 1.

Movie	Prediction	Official
Wazir	4.4	5.61	+ 27%, In accurate
Airlift	10.9	12.35	+ 13%, Accurate
Kya Kool Hai Hum 3	9.3	8.15	- 12%, Accurate
Mastizaade	6.1	5.59	- 8%, Accurate
Saala Khadoos	2.2	2.19	0%, Accurate
Ghayal Once Again	6.4	7.2	+ 12%, Accurate
Sanam Re	5.5	5.04	- 8%, Accurate
Fitoor	5.2	3.61	- 30%, Inaccurate
Neerja	4.3	4.7	+ 8%, Accurate
Jai Gangajaal	5.2	5.5	+ 6%, Accurate
Kapoor & Sons	5.8	6.85	+ 18%, Inaccurate
Rocky Handsome	6.3	5.39	- 14%, Accurate
Ki and Ka	6.3	7.27	+ 16%, Inaccurate
Fan	21.9	19.2	- 12%, Accurate
Baaghi	9.4	11.94	+ 27%, Inaccurate
Azhar	7.5	6.3	- 16%, Inaccurate
Sarbjit	4.2	3.69	- 12%, Accurate
Housefull 3	17.4	15.21	- 12%, Accurate
Udta Punjab	8.9	10.05	- 13%, Accurate
Sultan	38.5	36.54	- 5%, Accurate
Great Grand Masti	5.8	2.5	- 56%, Inaccurate
Dishoom	9.8	11.02	+12%, Accurate
Mohenjo Daro	10.7	8.87	- 17%, Inaccurate
Rustom	12.6	14.11	+12%, Accurate
Happy Bhaag Jayegi	2.1	2.32	+10%, Accurate
A Flying Jatt	8.5	7.11	- 16%, Inaccurate
Baar Baar Dekho	9.1	6.81	- 25%, Inaccurate
Freaky Ali	2.4	2.5	+4%, Accurate
Pink	4.5	4.32	-4%, Accurate
Raaz Reboot	5.2	6.31	+ 21%, Inaccurate
MS Dhoni	20.1	21.6	+7%, Accurate
Mirzya	4.0	2.2	- 45%, Inaccurate
Shivaay	10.7	10.24	-4%, Accurate
ADHM	12.4	13.3	+7%, Accurate
Force 2	5.8	6.05	+4%, Accurate
Dear Zindagi	9.7	8.75	-10%, Accurate
Kahaani 2	4.5	4.25	-5%, Accurate
Befikre	10.5	10.36	-1%, Accurate
Dangal	28.6	29.78	+4%, Accurate