Mubarakan Box Office Prediction

The industry is going through one of its dullest phases. Not only are films not succeeding at the box office, but most films with star-value aren’t even taking good starts on Friday morning. The last universally successful films were ‘Badrinath Ki Dulhania’ (early March) and ‘Bahubali 2: The Conclusion’ (late April).

Since then, almost every film has fallen short on opening day as well as lifetime collections – barring one or two films like ‘Hindi Medium’ and the surprise success of ‘Lipstick Under My Burkha’ due to low costs.

It’s during this depressingly dull period that a film like ‘Mubarakan’ with a successful but under-rated director like Anees Bazmee is all set to release in theatres.

Let’s quickly get down to see what has worked and what hasn’t during the pre-release campaign of the film:

Factors in favour of the film:

• Anees Bazmee: With wholesome entertainers like ‘No Entry’ and ‘Welcome’ to his credit, an in-form Bazmee can do wonders at the box office. If ‘Mubarakan’ turns out to be a well-made film, it could just be the entertainer that the audience have been waiting for.
• Arjun – Anil Kapoor: First the box office part; Arjun’s box office pull is under-rated, but his films (Ki & Ka, Half Girlfriend) have opened above expectations. It remains to be seen if he can manage the same with ‘Mubarakan’, but he certainly has his share of audience at smaller centres.  The Arjun Kapoor – Anil Kapoor jodi will also be something to watch out for.
• Comedy: We believe the comedy genre is evergreen, even though comedy films haven’t been working in recent times. People love laughing and if the funny moments are there, it can add to the repeat audience as well. ‘Mubarakan’ is also a situational comedy and not slapstick, which we think is again a plus.

Factors against the film:

• Trailer: The first trailer did not work, the second trailer should’ve been the first (with the advantage of hindsight, of course). A couple of songs have worked.
• Anees Bazmee: If the director has winners like ‘Ready’ and ‘Singh Is King’ apart from the films mentioned above, he also has failures like ‘Thank You’, ‘No Problem’ and ‘Sandwich’. Inconsistency means the audience is unsure, which probably dents the initial or value that a director can add to films.
• Upcoming releases: The two weeks after ‘Mubarakan’ are packed with major releases like ‘Jab Harry Met Sejal’ and ‘Toilet Ek Prem Katha’. The audience might save up money and may not even give ‘Mubarakan’ a chance if the film carries mixed word-of-mouth.
• Female stars: The female stars add value to such films at mass centres, but while Ileana D’Cruz is fine, without meaning to be harsh, Athiya Shetty is probably a minus for the film.

IndicineFBO: We are going with 7.2 crore as the opening day collections of ‘Mubarakan’. Ideally, the film should open somewhere between ‘Ki&Ka’ and ‘Half Girlfriend’ which would be around the 8-9 crore mark, but given the period that the industry is going through, we doubt the audience is willing to spend before the verdict is out.