MS Dhoni: The Untold Story Box Office Prediction

‘MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ is the big release of the week and arguably one of the Top 3 most-anticipated films of 2016 so far. The response to the advance booking, which opened about 5 days ago, has been excellent. In terms of the number of ticket sold, it’s probably the second best advance booking of the year – below Salman Khan’s Sultan and comparable to Shah Rukh Khan’s FAN.

In terms of release size too, ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ is getting a wide release which is comparable to some of the biggest films of the year.

It’s probably for the first time in the history of Indian Cinema that a cricketer will be lending his star-power to the opening of a film. It’s something that has never happened before and even if it has (Azhar biopic for example) – the pre-release buzz hasn’t really come close to what a big superstar can generate.

Factors that will help ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’:

• The man himself, everyone knows him and wants to know his ‘untold’ story. More importantly, Dhoni is probably the most loved cricketer in India after Sachin Tendulkar and has inspired an entire generation of Indians – who have grown up watching him lead India to not one, but two World Cup victories. The six of the last ball of the World Cup final too is one of those unforgettable nostalgic moments. The makers have been smart enough to use it in the promos.
• It also helps that the film revolves around cricket – by far the most popular sport in India.
• Neeraj Pandey, the director of the film, has a good track record. Almost every promo of ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’, including the all-important trailer, have received a good response.
• ‘MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ has other advantages too – the rural feel to the film (something that’s working today) and the rags to riches story. The industry, in the last few years, barring few films, has been catering mainly to the urban 10-15 city multiplex audience. This film is going to be different as ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ will appeal to every section of the audience.

For the first time, a cricketer's star power will be driving the film on Day 1. The credit for MS Dhoni's opening will go to the man himself

— Indicine.com (@indicine) September 29, 2016

Factors against ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’

• It’s a case of a small rising star, in a massive film. Fortunately, the burden of the opening is not really on him, because Dhoni will bring in the audience, before Neeraj Pandey (read – content) takes over.
• The costs are high and recovery – if the word-of-mouth is not good – is not going to be easy. Basically, the film has to open at 15 crore plus and then grow over the weekend – for it to have any chance of recovering costs. A lifetime domestic business of 100-110 crore plus is what the film needs just to break even.
• The runtime at 3 hours plus is on the higher side, which will mean fewer shows at multiplexes.

IndicineFBO: It’s another difficult prediction to make, because the factors involved here are not comparable to any film that has released before. But considering the pre-release buzz, advance booking and the immense popularity of Dhoni – we are going with a very bold prediction.

We expect ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’ to collect Rs 20.1 crore on its opening day at the box office. The only concern here is the word-of-mouth. Because to achieve these sort of numbers, the film has pick up evening onwards at multiplexes and even with good advance booking, the spot-booking will be the key. We expect Neeraj Pandey to deliver.

That’s our final prediction for Day 1 – Rs 20.1 crore for ’MS Dhoni: The Untold Story’.

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