As part of #IndicineLBO, where we predict the lifetime collections of Bollywood films, here’s our final prediction of Salman Khan’s Bajrangi Bhaijaan.
Reasons why we feel the film could topple the record of Dhoom 3 and have a chance at becoming only the second film to cross the 300 crore mark
- Extraordinary word-of-mouth: Bajrangi Bhaijaan has received universal acclaim and the response is probably better than Salman’s 2010 film Dabangg. Vast majority of people who have watched the film have liked it. In short, Bajrangi Bhaijaan has everything in its favour to become one of the biggest grossers of all time.
- Two open weeks: Bajrangi Bhaijaan has two open weeks at the box office, after which Ajay Devgn’s Drishyam is scheduled to hit screens. Assuming that the film collects around 170-175 crore in Week 1 and the drop in the second week is around 60-65% (due to the WOM), the Kabir Khan film should collect somewhere around 235-240 crore before ‘Drishyam’.
Reasons why we feel the PK record is out of reach
- Holidays: Along with extra-ordinary word-of-mouth, PK also benefitted from plenty of holidays in its second week. 7th day was a national holiday for Christmas and quite a few schools, colleges, companies remain shut during the days leading to New Year. That’s exactly why Christmas has been the most lucrative period for film business in India in the last 4-5 years, along with the ‘trust’ that the audience have in Aamir Khan films.
- Controversy: All publicity is good publicity! News channels were discussing and dissecting PK right from the second day of its release. Free publicity, which also helped the box office collections of the film.
- Tax Free: Although late in its 2nd week, PK was declared tax free in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal.
- Repeat value: Does Bajrangi Bhaijaan hold the same repeat value as PK? We are not quite sure. There is something about Rajkumar Hirani films, that they get better with repeat-viewing. The more you watch his films, the more you enjoy them.
Either way, stay tuned to Indicine for plenty of comparisons in the coming days. We will be comparing PK, Dhoom 3, Chennai Express, Krrish 3 and Kick with Bajrangi Bhaijaan.
IndicineLBO Predictions below
| Movie | Word of Mouth | Prediction | Actual Collection | Difference | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mr X | Negative | 24 cr | 24.9 cr | 0.03% | Accurate | |
| Gabbar Is Back | Positive | 89 cr | 85 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Piku | Positive | 75 cr | 79 cr | 5% | Accurate | |
| Bombay Velvet | Extremely Negative | 24 cr | 24 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Tanu Weds Manu | Extremely Positive | 86 cr | 151 cr | 75% | Inaccurate | |
| Dil Dhadakne Do | Mixed | 85 cr | 78 cr | 8% | Accurate | |
| Hamari Adhuri Kahani | Mixed | 33 cr | 37 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| ABCD 2 | Positive | 102 cr | 105 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Bajrangi Bhaijaan | Extremely Positive | 285 cr | 320 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Bangistan | Extremely Negative | 8 cr | 6.2 cr | 22% | Inaccurate | |
| Drishyam | Positive | 66 cr | 73 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
| Brothers | Negative | 103 cr | 83 cr | 20% | Inaccurate | |
| All Is Well | Negative | 16 cr | 15 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
| Phantom | Mixed | 61 cr | 54 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Welcome Back | Mixed | 120 cr | 98 cr | 18% | Inaccurate | |
| Hero | Mixed | 38 cr | 34 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
| Katti Batti | Extremely Negative | 24 cr | 24 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Calendar Girls | Negative | 8 cr | 7.1 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Kis Kisko Pyaar Karu | Positive | 57 cr | 50 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Talvar | Positive | 20 cr | 29 | 31% | Inaccurate | |
| Jazbaa | Mixed | 29 cr | 27 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
| Pyaar Ka Punchnama 2 | Positive | 35 cr | 61 cr | 42% | Inaccurate | |
| Shaandaar | Extremely Negative | 48 cr | 43 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Prem Ratan Dhan Payo | Mixed | 230 cr | 213 cr | 7% | Accurate | |
| Tamasha | Negative | 68 cr | 69 cr | 0% | Accurate | |
| Dilwale | 145 cr | 148 cr | 2% | Accurate | ||
| Bajirao Mastani | 168 cr | 187 cr | 10% | Accurate | ||
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Trend shows it will surely collect 300cr+…even has chance to break pk’s record.
@Indicine sorry, but it’s not only the “trust” of audience but it’s the massive craze and biggest fan following of aamir khan as why PK is HGOAT. Talaash was non holiday release and wan;t universal appealing film so it was never meant to be blockbuster or so. but still it was a clean hit. that’s the power of aamir khan.
I will be extremely happy if it collects even 280cr without any manipulation.
Salman khan the king of bollywood
Quite agree with the prediction of indicine,i think it should collect somewhere around 280-290crs
Now, it certain that Bajrangi Bhaijan is 7th blockbuster out of his last eight movies. Bollywood has never seen such huge miracle…Salmania Roxxx.
I don’t think PRDP will collect 235crs though..
Just wait indicine bajrangi will make you speechless. i feel if bajrangi will do only 300 it win over pk because pk got more benefit and bajrangi got more problems.
2 foot ka actor aur Salman se takkar? Aamir is a kid in front of Salman.
with due repect to indicine. my predictions are-
BB: 310 crores
Drishyam: 75 crores
Brothers: 125 crores
Shandaar: 60 crores
Phantom: 78 crores
Hera Pheri 3: 75 crores
Singh is Bling: 97 crores
PRDP: 265 crores
Ghayal 2: 45 crores
Dilwale: 160 crores
Bajirao Mastani :124 crores
Bajirao ruined Dilwale’s chances of being the highest grosser..
SLB get ready for all the abuses from srk fans,you have shattered their dream,the long wait of 8 years!!
@Indicine, it’s good to see that you are appreciating Salman Khan’s movie.
Even you are also now believing that Prem Ratan Dhan Payo will collect more than Dilwale. But make my words, Prem Ratan Dhan Payo will collect more than Bajrangi Bhaijaan.
@Tausif, predictions change depending on factors. On paper, Dilwale was expected to be the biggest grosser of the year, because it had a huge star cast and was releasing during Christmas. But now that Bajirao Mastani is coming on the same day, the advantage has been neutralised. It’ll still be a big grosser, but to break records, it needs content.
In a way, media coverage of box office records, helps the same film in the long run. It helped Baahubali. As soon as there was news that it did 50 crore on Day 1, people were curious to know why it did so well and went to watch it. That advantage will be missing for Dilwale. In fact, clash is a huge disadvantage for the bigger film.
Prem Ratan Dhan Payo predictions too will change after trailer, music and theatrical release. Until the final predictions are made, the above figures should be considered as trade expectations.
Indicine @are you predicting 212crore for dilwale because of clash or dilwale likely not upto mark contentwise??
@bicky, it’s because of Bajirao Mastani releasing on the same day. How would we know about content? The film is still on floors.
Its hard to judge the final figures , because pk and d3 benefited with lots of holidays whereas bb doesnt have that privilege in upcoming days !
But this is surely one of the best commercial cinema i have seen in long time !
Pk and d3 are running heavily because of lots of things , like heavy brand best director and also best release date and lots of open weeks!
So collections are not the landmark for a film because it can vary because of some external issues but when a movie touched your soul then it became a real Blockbuster! And BB certainly does that !
sometimes ego spoil both money and fame. Bansaliji should postpone his movie otherwise BM will be 2nd big disaster after BV if indicine’s prediction turn out to be true. But, Dilwale will get superhit status atleast if not become bbuster. Bansaliji dont waste your dream project. Josh mein hosh mat kho.. Dont be greedy sirji.. I am neutral guy and dont want to see a gud movie become flop because of stardom in dilwale. I can say confidently sawariya would never flop if it was release some other date.. Ego spoil everything
@Indicine, actually I was watching this page since long, and every time I get’s angry by seeing that both Salman film’s predictions were lower than Dilwale.
This time I am really happy that finally you changed it.
But it’s a fact that you always support Shahrukh Khan movies. I think may be you are Shahrukh fan. And that’s the reason you are saying that on papers, Dilwale expected to be the biggest grosser of the years. You means to say, Dilwale could be the bigger than both Salman movies? Why?
Now tell me, what will be the lifetime collections of Dilwale, if Salman was in the film instead of Shahrukh? Same director, same producer, same music, same starcast, only Salman instead of Shahrukh? Please tell..
@Tausif, as soon as it gets down to ‘You’re Shahrukh Khan’ or fan of X actor, we end discussions then and there. It’s pointless arguing.
For the last time, this is a strictly professional job. We are not here to please fans with predictions or support an actor. Our focus is on getting the predictions right and innovating with articles that we publish.
Even a layman, who doesn’t understand box office or trade, would say Dilwale has the bigger star cast. Dilwale – Shahrukh Khan, Kajol, Varun Dhawan, Kriti Sanon. Prem Ratan Dhan Payo – Salman Khan, Sonam Kapoor, Neil Nitin Mukesh. Isn’t it obvious?
Plus Rohit Shetty as director. Sooraj Barjatya might be a legendary director, but his last universally successful blockbuster released in 1994, which was Hum Aapke Hain Kaun. Hum Saath Saath Hain was a moderate success, Main Prem Ki Deewani Hoon failed and Vivah worked on a much smaller scale. It remains to be seen if his films will connect with the youth of today’s time. So Barjatya vs Shetty, it’s advantage Shetty as per current standing. Something that could change after the release of the two films, who knows?
indicine@ thanks for the clarification.
BB deserve it. BB is the only movie of salman khan after wanted i would like to watch again and again. I am neutral guy but don’t know my heart feel little deeply about srk but it doesn’t mean i hate others. I am watching every gud movies.
333 crore is my prediction.
@Tausif:
Yeah #indicine always over estimate srk & his movies. In 2012, they predicted jthj as the bigger grosser than ETT & Dabang 2. In 2014, again they predicted hny as the biggest grosser of the year. But we all know the results.
I think salmanicas should enjoy the sucess of BB rather than discussing about dilwale which is not yet released!
And evry movie has his own fate and that no one can change .
Because frm last 23 yrs lots of people bashing srk movies but cant change the fate of him neither his movies ! And in upcoming 23 yrs the scene wasnt gonna change !
So frnds enjoy the moment and stay in peace !
And If dilwale hits the right chord then no one gonna change its fate not even The almighty Bajrangi !
Salman bhai rocks,he is the greatest human being.Bajrangi WW- 800crs
Pawan Kumar Chaturvedi(PK Crosser)
2 year mein 1 film karta hai aamir,bhai 1 year mein 2 film– Ab batao who is the bigger star!
@tausif bhai, result will be almost same whether it is aamir or salman in dilwale because if salman is superstar then both srk and aamir also has same stardom. For instance, both raees and sultan never gross more than 200 cr, it seems to be impossible. Because at a same time 400 crore from indian market, i dont think so but all the best anyway..
@ indicine – you are underestimating that director who took indian cinema to overseas with mpk and hahk highest grosser of the decade and hum saath hain collected less because salman has smaller role than previous movies. just google hahk release with how many prints and than match it with your all time favourite ddlj and you will get your answer who is bigger mindless rohit or great sooraj. family audience means youth also include dont be a srkcine with srk users excuse.
This is good now final collection aj h sunane m aa raha h 47 cr ke ass pass if is true so movie higest weekend collection all time…!!
Always said it and will say it again, opening weekend depends on the star. Lifetime collections depends on the merit of the movie. SRK, Salman, and Aamir all have similar opening weekends but since aamir has been doing better movies, his movie have had better lifetime collections. (Not to mention he also releases his movies during Xmas and with 3-4 open weeks w/o competition)
Give SRK or Salman a brilliant script, legendary director, and a christmas release with 3-4 open weeks, either of them can gross 400cr domestically.
TO ALL SALMAN’s ILLITERATE FANS, and AAMIR HATERS, don’t cry about pk’s collection for being director’s movie as BB’s credit also goes to brilliant director kabir khan. remember jai ho?????? LOL. the opening of BB was lower than expected and it’s the direction of kabir khan and positive word of mouth which helped to grow the collections. I bet you if it was just another crappy salman movie like bodyguard or dabangg than it wouldn’t have trended and would sink completely. it’s only CONTENT which is why BB is now doing well. but opening was poor and under performer. so stop crying about PK
Final figur is 45 cr..now werkend 109 all time higjest grosser ..!!
All #indicine users, in my id all letters are capital “TIGER” & that chame leone written as “Tiger”. So, don’t be confused with my id.