KICK HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

EXPECTATIONS:

The biggest release of the year so far will hit screens in less than 12 hours in India, as Salman Khan returns to the weekend that made him the biggest superstar in the country.

Salman’s record for the Eid weekend is only comparable to Shahrukh Khan’s Diwali releases (Also read: SRK and the History of Diwali Clashes) and Aamir Khan’s during Christmas. Each of his films that released during Eid have smashed first day, first weekend and first week records. So the expectations this year to better the success of his previous releases is high.

Will Kick go on to be Salman’s first 200 crore grosser? Can the film go on to beat other big grossers like Chennai Express, Krrish 3 and Dhoom 3? Will the film touch 40 crore on a single day? These are some of the many questions that are being discussed and debated, not just between fans on social networking platforms, but also in the trade.

To predict the opening of KICK is difficult because of several factors that could affect its opening weekend business:

1. Pre-eid release: Kick releases 4 days before Eid, during the Ramadan period when muslims prefer not to watch films. However, unlike the days before Diwali, the Ramadan period won’t have a massive impact on business as the muslim population is 14%. Films like Bhaag Milkha Bhaag and Humpty Sharma Ki Dulhania that released during this period have done well at the box office.

2. Non-holiday release: Salman’s highest grosser Ek Tha Tiger also released a few days before Eid, but the difference was that the film released on a national holiday. This Friday is a working day so the chances of breaking opening day records of Dhoom 3 are very low.

3. Rains: The Southwest monsoon was delayed this year and it has been pouring non-stop in Mumbai over the last few days. The Mumbai circuit business of Humpty Sharma Ki Dulhania was severely affected due to monsoon. The weather forecast for the weekend isn’t too good either.

Moving to the positive side of things, the promos and trailers have generated a lot of buzz. Unlike Jai Ho, Kick has almost everything going for it – action, romance, comedy, beautiful heroine, huge budget and the superstar himself. The advance booking has been pretty good too (more in the detailed report).

KICK BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS:

We expect the film to collect around 22-24 crore on its opening day at the box office, which would be considered excellent for a non-holiday pre-eid release. But if Kick does manage to collect more, the stage would be set for a huge first week.

Release: Kick will release on 4000-4100 screens in India and 700 screens overseas. Highest for any film so far (Hindi only).

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• Day 1 – 25 cr
• Day 2 – 22 cr
• Day 3 – 31 cr (Sunday)
• Weekend – 78 cr
• First Week – 155 cr
• Final – 230 cr+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Day 1 – 24 cr
• Day 2 – 21 cr
• Day 3 – 29 cr (Sunday)
• Weekend – 74 cr
• First Week – 140 cr
• Final – 200 cr (HIT)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Day 1 – 23 cr
• Day 2 – 20 cr
• Day 3 – 25 cr (Sunday)
• Weekend – 68 cr
• First Week – 115 cr
• Final – 140 cr (Flop)

That’s our box office prediction for Salman Khan’s KICK. The film is expected to do well as long as the word-of-mouth isn’t terrible. It has 2-3 weeks (depending on how well Akshay Kumar’s Entertainment does) to collect as much as it can before the release of Singham Returns.

What’s your take on the box office prospects of KICK? Hit or Flop? Tell us!

Do also vote by selecting your prediction of KICK.