IndicineLBO: ADHM, Shivaay Lifetime Prediction

It’s been a difficult prediction to make, because over the first weekend it was almost impossible to pick the trend of the big Diwali releases – Shivaay and Ae Dil Hai Mushkil.

Not many in the trade had much of an idea on which way the two films would go and most still don’t. The reason for this is the ‘Pre-Diwali’ period. Ajay himself had said in his interviews that the ‘real weekend’ begins on Monday.

The word-of-mouth that the two films are carrying has also been difficult to ascertain, but here’s what we’ve been hearing from different people about the two films.

Shivaay:

• Too long: Ajay was quick to realise this and immediately cut the film short by 10 minutes.
• The film is not close to as bad as the critics made it out to be: A section of audience is liking and enjoying the film.
• Action, emotion and visuals: The biggest ticket sellers
• Emotional connect missing: Is what the audience who haven’t liked the film are saying.
• A section of the trade believes a turnaround could happen and Shivaay could sustain and even surpass ADHM in the long run.
• Bigger the centre, poorer the collections. So far, Shivaay has failed in big cities, which are huge contributors to film business these days due to higher ticket prices.

ADHM:

• Star Cast, Music and Karan Johar film are three of the biggest reasons for ADHM easily winning the first 4 days at the box office.
• The word-of-mouth is good in major cities, but the film doesn’t seem to be working at smaller cities and towns.
• The first half has been received well, performances loved, but the problem lies in the most important (second) half which the audience carry back home.
• Extreme reactions to the last 30 minutes, a small section of the audience has liked it, majority haven’t.
• If cities continue to perform, ADHM will maintain the lead, but will it hold up after the festival period ends? That seems to be the big question.

Overall, it’s difficult to pick one winner. We believe the lifetime total of the two films will be around the same level. It’ll be good enough for Ae Dil Hai Mushkil to emerge victorious (because of its solid economics), but Shivaay still has a mount to climb in the next few days.

Time will tell, but we are going with Karan Johar’s Ae Dil Hai Mushkil as the winner of the Diwali clash.

The numbers that we had on the site for last couple of days, remain the same, but ADHM has been reduced by a few crores. 95 crore for Shivaay and 102 crore for ADHM. The final IndicineLBO box office prediction.

Movie	Word of Mouth		Prediction	Actual Collection	Difference	Result
Dilwale	Mixed		145 cr	148 cr	2%	Accurate
Bajirao Mastani	Extremely Positive		168 cr	187 cr	12%	Accurate
Wazir	Mixed		35 cr	40 cr	14%	Accurate
Airlift	Positive		143 cr	127 cr	11%	Accurate
Kya Kool Hai Hum 3	Negative		34 cr	31 cr	8%	Accurate
Mastizaade	Mixed		29 cr	32 cr	10%	Accurate
Saala Khadoos	Negative		16 cr	14 cr	12%	Accurate
Ghayal Once Again	Mixed		39 cr	36 cr*	8%	Accurate
Sanam Re	Mixed		28 cr	29 cr	3%	Accurate
Fitoor	Extremely Negative		23 cr	19 cr	17%	Inaccurate
Neerja	Positive		70 cr	74 cr	6%	Accurate
Teraa Surroor	Negative		12 cr	13 cr	8%	Accurate
Rocky Handsome	Negative		26 cr	25 cr	4%	Accurate
Jai Gangaajal	Negative		33 cr	32 cr	3%	Accurate
Kapoor & Sons	Positive		66 cr	72 cr	9%	Accurate
Ki And Ka	Positive		54 cr	53 cr	2%	Accurate
Fan	Negative		95 cr	84 cr	11%	Accurate
Baaghi	Positive		84 cr	75 cr	11%	Accurate
Azhar	Negative		35 cr	33 cr	5%	Accurate
Sarabjit	Mixed		26 cr	28 cr	7%	Accurate
Housefull 3	Mixed		105 cr	107 cr	2%	Accurate
Udta Punjab	Mixed		72 cr	59 cr	18%	Inaccurate
Sultan	Positive		305 cr	302 cr	1%	Accurate
Dishoom	Mixed		62 cr	69 cr	11%	Accurate
Mohenjo Daro	Negative		54 cr	59 cr	9%	Accurate
Rustom	Positive		102 cr	126 cr	23%	Inaccurate
Happy Bhag Jayegi	Mixed		21 cr	26 cr	24%	Inaccurate
A Flying Jatt	Negative		33 cr	37 cr	12%	Accurate
Akira	Mixed		27 cr	28 cr	3%	Accurate
Baar Baar Dekho	Negative		38 cr	31 cr	18%	Inaccurate
Raaz Reboot	Negative		28 cr	27 cr	3%	Accurate
Pink	Positive		54 cr	65 cr	20%	Inaccurate
M S Dhoni biopic	Mixed		138 cr	133 cr	4%	Accurate
Mirzya	Negative		9 cr	10 cr	11%	Accurate
Shivaay	Mixed		95 cr	96 cr	1%	Accurate
Ae Dil Hai Mushkil	Mixed		102 cr	111 cr	9%	Accurate
Rock On 2	Negative		13 cr	10 cr	23%	Inaccurate
Force 2	Mixed		35 cr	34 cr	3%	Accurate
Dear Zindagi	Positive		65 cr	66 cr	1%	Accurate
Befikre	Negative		58 cr	60 cr	3%	Accurate
Dangal	Pending		315 cr	-	-	-