The response to the theatrical trailer and the ‘Jabra’ song from Shah Rukh Khan’s FAN has increased the excitement around the film, both in the trade and the audience.
We start FBO (First day box office) with Rs 20.5 crore, which would be a terrific start for a non-festive release. The makers have to now sustain the buzz leading upto the release of the film on April 15. Note: The final prediction will be made on April 14 (i.e one day before the release of the film)
Opening Day Factors in favour
- Shah Rukh Khan
- Well-appreciated trailer
- Jabra song in various languages has increased appeal and reach at smaller centres
- Surprise element of revenge in FAN has helped increase curiosity
- Comparisons with Darr and Baazigar has led to a feeling of nostalgia, the return of Shah Rukh of yore.
Opening Day Factors against FAN
- Inconsistency of director Maneesh Sharma; Band Baaja Baarat worked, rest were either flops or average grossers.
- Glorification of Shah Rukh Khan may not be liked by a section of the audience, after all not everyone is a FAN.
- Shah Rukh’s first non-festive release since My Name Is Khan. Exhibitors / YRF unlikely to price tickets at holiday rates (confirmation soon).
- Lack of universal appeal; doesn’t have those typical filmy ingredients which could both work in favour or against the film. But it’s certain to restrict business at smaller centres.
| Movie | Prediction | Official | |
| Wazir | 4.4 | 5.61 | + 27%, In accurate |
| Airlift | 10.9 | 12.35 | + 13%, Accurate |
| Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 | 9.3 | 8.15 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Mastizaade | 6.1 | 5.59 | - 8%, Accurate |
| Saala Khadoos | 2.2 | 2.19 | 0%, Accurate |
| Ghayal Once Again | 6.4 | 7.2 | + 12%, Accurate |
| Sanam Re | 5.5 | 5.04 | - 8%, Accurate |
| Fitoor | 5.2 | 3.61 | - 30%, Inaccurate |
| Neerja | 4.3 | 4.7 | + 8%, Accurate |
| Jai Gangajaal | 5.2 | 5.5 | + 6%, Accurate |
| Kapoor & Sons | 5.8 | 6.85 | + 18%, Inaccurate |
| Rocky Handsome | 6.3 | 5.39 | - 14%, Accurate |
| Ki and Ka | 6.3 | 7.27 | + 16%, Inaccurate |
| Fan | 21.9 | 19.2 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Baaghi | 9.4 | 11.94 | + 27%, Inaccurate |
| Azhar | 7.5 | 6.3 | - 16%, Inaccurate |
| Sarbjit | 4.2 | 3.69 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Housefull 3 | 17.4 | 15.21 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Udta Punjab | 8.9 | 10.05 | - 13%, Accurate |
| Sultan | 38.5 | 36.54 | - 5%, Accurate |
| Great Grand Masti | 5.8 | 2.5 | - 56%, Inaccurate |
| Dishoom | 9.8 | 11.02 | +12%, Accurate |
| Mohenjo Daro | 10.7 | 8.87 | - 17%, Inaccurate |
| Rustom | 12.6 | 14.11 | +12%, Accurate |
| Happy Bhaag Jayegi | 2.1 | 2.32 | +10%, Accurate |
| A Flying Jatt | 8.5 | 7.11 | - 16%, Inaccurate |
| Baar Baar Dekho | 9.1 | 6.81 | - 25%, Inaccurate |
| Freaky Ali | 2.4 | 2.5 | +4%, Accurate |
| Pink | 4.5 | 4.32 | -4%, Accurate |
| Raaz Reboot | 5.2 | 6.31 | + 21%, Inaccurate |
| MS Dhoni | 20.1 | 21.6 | +7%, Accurate |
| Mirzya | 4.0 | 2.2 | - 45%, Inaccurate |
| Shivaay | 10.7 | 10.24 | -4%, Accurate |
| ADHM | 12.4 | 13.3 | +7%, Accurate |
| Force 2 | 5.8 | 6.05 | +4%, Accurate |
| Dear Zindagi | 9.7 | 8.75 | -10%, Accurate |
| Kahaani 2 | 4.5 | 4.25 | -5%, Accurate |
| Befikre | 10.5 | 10.36 | -1%, Accurate |
| Dangal | 28.6 | 29.78 | +4%, Accurate |
Lifetime business
- After Happy New Year and Dilwale, success of FAN will be important for Shah Rukh Khan. He needs a film that’s well liked by the audience.
- If FAN does well, it could be a battle of equals when Raees and Sultan clash. If it doesn’t, Salman will have a serious advantage, atleast as far as the opening is concerned.
- FAN releases during the beginning of the IPL season and during a time when temperatures peak in most parts of the country.
- Quite a few holidays / restricted holidays – Ram Navami (Friday, 15th April), Mahaveer Jayanti (20th April), holiday in UP on 21st April.
- 2 open weeks before the release of Tiger Shroff and Shraddha Kapoor’s Baaghi on April 29.
| Movie | Word of Mouth | Prediction | Actual Collection | Difference | Result | |
| Dilwale | Mixed | 145 cr | 148 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Bajirao Mastani | Extremely Positive | 168 cr | 187 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Wazir | Mixed | 35 cr | 40 cr | 14% | Accurate | |
| Airlift | Positive | 143 cr | 127 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 | Negative | 34 cr | 31 cr | 8% | Accurate | |
| Mastizaade | Mixed | 29 cr | 32 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
| Saala Khadoos | Negative | 16 cr | 14 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Ghayal Once Again | Mixed | 39 cr | 36 cr* | 8% | Accurate | |
| Sanam Re | Mixed | 28 cr | 29 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Fitoor | Extremely Negative | 23 cr | 19 cr | 17% | Inaccurate | |
| Neerja | Positive | 70 cr | 74 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
| Teraa Surroor | Negative | 12 cr | 13 cr | 8% | Accurate | |
| Rocky Handsome | Negative | 26 cr | 25 cr | 4% | Accurate | |
| Jai Gangaajal | Negative | 33 cr | 32 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Kapoor & Sons | Positive | 66 cr | 72 cr | 9% | Accurate | |
| Ki And Ka | Positive | 54 cr | 53 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Fan | Negative | 95 cr | 84 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Baaghi | Positive | 84 cr | 75 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Azhar | Negative | 35 cr | 33 cr | 5% | Accurate | |
| Sarabjit | Mixed | 26 cr | 28 cr | 7% | Accurate | |
| Housefull 3 | Mixed | 105 cr | 107 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Udta Punjab | Mixed | 72 cr | 59 cr | 18% | Inaccurate | |
| Sultan | Positive | 305 cr | 302 cr | 1% | Accurate | |
| Dishoom | Mixed | 62 cr | 69 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Mohenjo Daro | Negative | 54 cr | 59 cr | 9% | Accurate | |
| Rustom | Positive | 102 cr | 126 cr | 23% | Inaccurate | |
| Happy Bhag Jayegi | Mixed | 21 cr | 26 cr | 24% | Inaccurate | |
| A Flying Jatt | Negative | 33 cr | 37 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Akira | Mixed | 27 cr | 28 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Baar Baar Dekho | Negative | 38 cr | 31 cr | 18% | Inaccurate | |
| Raaz Reboot | Negative | 28 cr | 27 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Pink | Positive | 54 cr | 65 cr | 20% | Inaccurate | |
| M S Dhoni biopic | Mixed | 138 cr | 133 cr | 4% | Accurate | |
| Mirzya | Negative | 9 cr | 10 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Shivaay | Mixed | 95 cr | 96 cr | 1% | Accurate | |
| Ae Dil Hai Mushkil | Mixed | 102 cr | 111 cr | 9% | Accurate | |
| Rock On 2 | Negative | 13 cr | 10 cr | 23% | Inaccurate | |
| Force 2 | Mixed | 35 cr | 34 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Dear Zindagi | Positive | 65 cr | 66 cr | 1% | Accurate | |
| Befikre | Negative | 58 cr | 60 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Dangal | Pending | 315 cr | - | - | - | |
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Ny prediction
Fan – 240 cr
Housefull 3 – 180 cr
Raaz 4 – 60 cr
Azhaar – 80 cr
Sultan – 140 cr
Raees – 200 cr
Mohanjodaro – 190 cr
Rustom – 90 cr
Shivaay – 120 cr
Adhm – 100 cr
Dangal – 160 cr
This time worst prediction indicine. You have really reallyunderrated utda panjab and rangoon. Mark my world utda panjab will cross 65 cr and rangoon will cross 100 cr.
I’m big fan of srk,but from 4-5 years,srk is always making me disappointed by doing crap movies like hny,jthj raone etc,last movie of srk which I liked it was mnik,but after watching the trailer of fan,I hope that this time srk sir won’t make me disappointed.
@Yuvraj
U r not using even the 5 common sense u have and u r talking about the 6th.Shame on u.
@Indicine
I have higher expectations from fan.But all in all box office z unpredictable. I believe fan will cross 200cr mark.
@Joe
U coward cheater.U can’t even b a fan coz u don’t have the feeling. Instead of putting ur nose to sth that z not related to u identify who u are
Rustom at 94 n mohenjedaro at 190..really shocked i m indicine team.at one point u r saying rustom could seriously challenge mohenjedaro n at the other point ur lfo predictions says something else..in no way mj could score double of rustom unless rustom dissappoints in its content..
There is a dirty politics going on in India , no matter how good is the film, no doubt SRK is the best of rest in every way, there are jealous people doesn’t want to increase his glorification. These are either politically influenced or most of Salman fans.
Aamir is bigger star dan SRK…lol…Itz like chunky pandey hs more star power dn leo..haha..R u serious @indicine..
@indicine 5:56 pm.
Yeah right, the numbers make it pretty obvious & acc to numbers SRK still holds the record for the highest opening day & highest opening weekend. If this doesn’t signify Star Power, what else does ? It’s a fact & even you have mentioned this in the past that a Star can only bring the audiences to the theatres in the opening weekend & then WOM takes over. SRK even with a clash, during a normal Friday (Dilwale) gave a 21 cr. opener which many actors cannot manage even on a holiday.
You can stick to your numbers/ratings or whatever but if someone is asking you for a reason, either give a proper answer or just ignore the question. Stating that ‘the numbers make it pretty obvious’ doesn’t make your answer obvious, nor does it elaborate anything.
Thank You.
#Kaali
Glad to see that ur LBO predictions keep going up as the release date approaches. Initially it was 138 cr, then 141 cr and now 165 cr. And also FBO was initially I think 15 cr and now 20.5 cr.
With the increase in buzz after the trailer the movie should open 18 cr plus.
For me (as a fan) however this movie has never been about box office collections. As long as the movie has content and is a great watch I will take whatever it earns. After seeing the trailer the expectations have multiplied many times. Just want the movie to be as good as it appears to be from the trailer. The fan in me was not at all happy with his last few movies like HNY, CE, Dilwale and even JTHJ.
Have never felt a ‘connection’ with any other movie character as I feel for Gaurav Chandana. This movie is much much above the box office returns for me and is all about the satisfaction/content that I want to feel after meeting Gaurav and watching the movie. Along with high hopes however there is a lot of fear also that the movie may not in the end turn about to be that good as I want it to be which will be quite painful. But I think whatever the case may be I will still be glad that SRK at least ditched the masala/romantic movies and tried something different with this movie.
@Akshay, the same world of ur Akshay Kumar movies where all nonsense can happen .
Terrific start 20 crs for biggest megastar of world ?
Means hny would hve also done 20 crs in non festive. ?
I think you aren’t aware about holiday on 15th April .?
Now we will see how neutral they r because for gabbar is back, they keep saying tht it had advantage of partial holiday which was only in one city ? now where is your Statement about partial holiday fan is getting? Why u r focusing on festive release? It’s getting partial holiday, 25 cr should be must for it .
Partial holiday thing should hve been on top of your article. Any holiday or festival release is same atleast for OPENING DAY .
It will be average.
Indicine post an article on last non festive & non holiday release of an actor.
@ indicine first day collections show star power not lifetime and you better know who has highest FBO…..srk evn wd clash has FBO nearing others non clash FBO
so we can say it as non festive but we can’t say it as non holiday release.
I don’t know when this insecure Khan will release his films on Non Holiday period.
@indicine, post an article on highest grossers of an actor on Non Holiday (not non festive).
@Sunny Akkiholic… actually indicine is fan of SRK so just u can’t say anything against srk.
First time seeing Indicine speechless on a question asked by many of the users i.e. how Raees starcast is 9/10 and dangal/sultan is 10/10
Hahaha. Wat happened 2 laden 2 fbo??? Just bcz ur fbo went inaccurate u hv deleted it from d list…
Smart
@Arjun Youngistaan Fan, show us an article here on Indicine where we posted the final prediction of Tere Bin Laden? We did not post any article and we do not predict for films that collect less than 1 crore. By the way, weren’t you the same guy who repeatedly asked us to increase Tere Bin Laden prediction to 5 crore?
@Indicine : I dont know how u can say that Success or Failure of Fan can have an impact on Raees vs Sultan Clash…It will never have an impact as far as the opening is concerned….Tell me why PRDP failed to beat the opening day of HNY with the same release day and with higher screens and higher ticket prices…So that shows SRK is no less than Salman when comes to Opening right? Life time always depends on WOM but i am pretty sure than Raees will be a better movie than Sultan if we check the track of the respective directors..Fan will defenitly collect 30+ cr on Opening day IMO
after 2010 – Non Festive Salman – Jai Ho
Non Holiday Salman – Ready
Non Festive & Holiday of SRK – 404 : Error Not Found. (404 Not Found Error).
It will be a NOSTALGIC Flop of Sharukh of yore like Anjaam most probably..
Max it will be a hit…
Meoww bhai fans should expect 100 crores plus business with a non festive release instead of expecting impossible figures like 200 crores…
BLOCKBISTER fan movie
FAN won’t make as your prediction.
It would be a BELOW AVERAGE affair at BO.
Day By Day indicine LBO and FBO is increased for Fan for big Jump of nearly 30cr of indicine has increased for Exhaust Fan from 138 to 165cr .But I said it will fail to beat 100cr .
And Dangal got 10 points for its casting ?
Aamir khan
2 unknown poor looking girls
sakhsi tanwar
is getting 10 points clear say that Aamir is The king .
where indicine is Biased against SRK even 2 Srk can’t match single aamir
HAHA even after watching the trailer you are
saying SRK is glorified in it?
Aryan Khanna is shown as completely different Superstar.
Negative factors should also include-
1)No songs in Movie
2)No Actress (at least a lead one with role)
@Indicine is Fan official remake of The Fan(1981), because trailer is matching a lot.
When dilwale with mass masala content being a multistarrer released on a holiday did 20cr on day1 & lifetime of 139cr,how come u expect 20cr opening & 165cr lifetime for fan ? Hardly 15cr opening & lifetime would be touch & go for 100cr,MARK MY COMMENT.