The response to the theatrical trailer and the ‘Jabra’ song from Shah Rukh Khan’s FAN has increased the excitement around the film, both in the trade and the audience.
We start FBO (First day box office) with Rs 20.5 crore, which would be a terrific start for a non-festive release. The makers have to now sustain the buzz leading upto the release of the film on April 15. Note: The final prediction will be made on April 14 (i.e one day before the release of the film)
Opening Day Factors in favour
- Shah Rukh Khan
- Well-appreciated trailer
- Jabra song in various languages has increased appeal and reach at smaller centres
- Surprise element of revenge in FAN has helped increase curiosity
- Comparisons with Darr and Baazigar has led to a feeling of nostalgia, the return of Shah Rukh of yore.
Opening Day Factors against FAN
- Inconsistency of director Maneesh Sharma; Band Baaja Baarat worked, rest were either flops or average grossers.
- Glorification of Shah Rukh Khan may not be liked by a section of the audience, after all not everyone is a FAN.
- Shah Rukh’s first non-festive release since My Name Is Khan. Exhibitors / YRF unlikely to price tickets at holiday rates (confirmation soon).
- Lack of universal appeal; doesn’t have those typical filmy ingredients which could both work in favour or against the film. But it’s certain to restrict business at smaller centres.
| Movie | Prediction | Official | |
| Wazir | 4.4 | 5.61 | + 27%, In accurate |
| Airlift | 10.9 | 12.35 | + 13%, Accurate |
| Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 | 9.3 | 8.15 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Mastizaade | 6.1 | 5.59 | - 8%, Accurate |
| Saala Khadoos | 2.2 | 2.19 | 0%, Accurate |
| Ghayal Once Again | 6.4 | 7.2 | + 12%, Accurate |
| Sanam Re | 5.5 | 5.04 | - 8%, Accurate |
| Fitoor | 5.2 | 3.61 | - 30%, Inaccurate |
| Neerja | 4.3 | 4.7 | + 8%, Accurate |
| Jai Gangajaal | 5.2 | 5.5 | + 6%, Accurate |
| Kapoor & Sons | 5.8 | 6.85 | + 18%, Inaccurate |
| Rocky Handsome | 6.3 | 5.39 | - 14%, Accurate |
| Ki and Ka | 6.3 | 7.27 | + 16%, Inaccurate |
| Fan | 21.9 | 19.2 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Baaghi | 9.4 | 11.94 | + 27%, Inaccurate |
| Azhar | 7.5 | 6.3 | - 16%, Inaccurate |
| Sarbjit | 4.2 | 3.69 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Housefull 3 | 17.4 | 15.21 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Udta Punjab | 8.9 | 10.05 | - 13%, Accurate |
| Sultan | 38.5 | 36.54 | - 5%, Accurate |
| Great Grand Masti | 5.8 | 2.5 | - 56%, Inaccurate |
| Dishoom | 9.8 | 11.02 | +12%, Accurate |
| Mohenjo Daro | 10.7 | 8.87 | - 17%, Inaccurate |
| Rustom | 12.6 | 14.11 | +12%, Accurate |
| Happy Bhaag Jayegi | 2.1 | 2.32 | +10%, Accurate |
| A Flying Jatt | 8.5 | 7.11 | - 16%, Inaccurate |
| Baar Baar Dekho | 9.1 | 6.81 | - 25%, Inaccurate |
| Freaky Ali | 2.4 | 2.5 | +4%, Accurate |
| Pink | 4.5 | 4.32 | -4%, Accurate |
| Raaz Reboot | 5.2 | 6.31 | + 21%, Inaccurate |
| MS Dhoni | 20.1 | 21.6 | +7%, Accurate |
| Mirzya | 4.0 | 2.2 | - 45%, Inaccurate |
| Shivaay | 10.7 | 10.24 | -4%, Accurate |
| ADHM | 12.4 | 13.3 | +7%, Accurate |
| Force 2 | 5.8 | 6.05 | +4%, Accurate |
| Dear Zindagi | 9.7 | 8.75 | -10%, Accurate |
| Kahaani 2 | 4.5 | 4.25 | -5%, Accurate |
| Befikre | 10.5 | 10.36 | -1%, Accurate |
| Dangal | 28.6 | 29.78 | +4%, Accurate |
Lifetime business
- After Happy New Year and Dilwale, success of FAN will be important for Shah Rukh Khan. He needs a film that’s well liked by the audience.
- If FAN does well, it could be a battle of equals when Raees and Sultan clash. If it doesn’t, Salman will have a serious advantage, atleast as far as the opening is concerned.
- FAN releases during the beginning of the IPL season and during a time when temperatures peak in most parts of the country.
- Quite a few holidays / restricted holidays – Ram Navami (Friday, 15th April), Mahaveer Jayanti (20th April), holiday in UP on 21st April.
- 2 open weeks before the release of Tiger Shroff and Shraddha Kapoor’s Baaghi on April 29.
| Movie | Word of Mouth | Prediction | Actual Collection | Difference | Result | |
| Dilwale | Mixed | 145 cr | 148 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Bajirao Mastani | Extremely Positive | 168 cr | 187 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Wazir | Mixed | 35 cr | 40 cr | 14% | Accurate | |
| Airlift | Positive | 143 cr | 127 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 | Negative | 34 cr | 31 cr | 8% | Accurate | |
| Mastizaade | Mixed | 29 cr | 32 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
| Saala Khadoos | Negative | 16 cr | 14 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Ghayal Once Again | Mixed | 39 cr | 36 cr* | 8% | Accurate | |
| Sanam Re | Mixed | 28 cr | 29 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Fitoor | Extremely Negative | 23 cr | 19 cr | 17% | Inaccurate | |
| Neerja | Positive | 70 cr | 74 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
| Teraa Surroor | Negative | 12 cr | 13 cr | 8% | Accurate | |
| Rocky Handsome | Negative | 26 cr | 25 cr | 4% | Accurate | |
| Jai Gangaajal | Negative | 33 cr | 32 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Kapoor & Sons | Positive | 66 cr | 72 cr | 9% | Accurate | |
| Ki And Ka | Positive | 54 cr | 53 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Fan | Negative | 95 cr | 84 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Baaghi | Positive | 84 cr | 75 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Azhar | Negative | 35 cr | 33 cr | 5% | Accurate | |
| Sarabjit | Mixed | 26 cr | 28 cr | 7% | Accurate | |
| Housefull 3 | Mixed | 105 cr | 107 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Udta Punjab | Mixed | 72 cr | 59 cr | 18% | Inaccurate | |
| Sultan | Positive | 305 cr | 302 cr | 1% | Accurate | |
| Dishoom | Mixed | 62 cr | 69 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Mohenjo Daro | Negative | 54 cr | 59 cr | 9% | Accurate | |
| Rustom | Positive | 102 cr | 126 cr | 23% | Inaccurate | |
| Happy Bhag Jayegi | Mixed | 21 cr | 26 cr | 24% | Inaccurate | |
| A Flying Jatt | Negative | 33 cr | 37 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Akira | Mixed | 27 cr | 28 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Baar Baar Dekho | Negative | 38 cr | 31 cr | 18% | Inaccurate | |
| Raaz Reboot | Negative | 28 cr | 27 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Pink | Positive | 54 cr | 65 cr | 20% | Inaccurate | |
| M S Dhoni biopic | Mixed | 138 cr | 133 cr | 4% | Accurate | |
| Mirzya | Negative | 9 cr | 10 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Shivaay | Mixed | 95 cr | 96 cr | 1% | Accurate | |
| Ae Dil Hai Mushkil | Mixed | 102 cr | 111 cr | 9% | Accurate | |
| Rock On 2 | Negative | 13 cr | 10 cr | 23% | Inaccurate | |
| Force 2 | Mixed | 35 cr | 34 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Dear Zindagi | Positive | 65 cr | 66 cr | 1% | Accurate | |
| Befikre | Negative | 58 cr | 60 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Dangal | Pending | 315 cr | - | - | - | |
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@indicine how much FAN need to collect to prove Shah rukh khan is still the KING OF BOLLYWOOD
Indicine is doing Full Madness
FAN is a niche film so 165cr okay but Dangal is also a niche Film & don’t have universal appeal so,How 270cr.
& Only looking at H3’s sequal factor how it will collect 168cr because WB also had Sequal Factor & Open with 15cr+ but Lifetime only 96cr.
@indicine
Saala Khadoos Didi have Negative WOM,it had Positive WOM.
If you have any doubts then open IMDb & you will get your answer.
Jagga jasoos only 52 CR ar serious this is rk not shahid n varun increases this by 90-100 CR
And came to fan it collect120 – 125
Mark the words
Housefull3 – 168 what a joke it will do only 110- 120 cr
Awesome predictions…
I think Fan will be collect more than 200 cr And it will emerged highest non holiday collectoin…
eagarly waiting for Fan… 42 days left
Duniya ka Sabse bada superstar ka sabse bada Fan
@Indicine today is my birth day……
#Fasal kerala
Housefull3 3 upcoming crap
@Indicine thnkuuu for wishing me on my birth day…
#Fasal kerala…
I hope indicine, this should be your final prediction … do not change it again !!!!
We just hope that yrf give it a wide release
Then Fan is gonna show how much it can collect at box office !!!!
I have high expectations that’s I don’t say it
If I say it, u will not believe it !!!!
The reality factor is missing from the film. Still if srk shines with his terrific acting, it can collect upto 150 cr, which is awesome for non holiday release. If it fails, raees should not clash with Sultan, or raees will be a disaster. Because ryt now Salman is the king of bollywood.
@Fasal kerala Janmadina aashamsakal!
@akshay , This was just a 2.5minutes trailer then how can you judge the plot.
If in any case your mind doesnt change and you want the answer,Watch joker,tmk,SIB,brothers, +++ endless list of gobars crap.
@xzone, I agree with you bro !!!
Maybe the reason is that srk’s image has been hurt becoz of his intolerance statement …!!!!
But the funny question is that will fan collect 20 crore with 4000+ screens count on its opening day acc to indicine ???
I am not blind enough to predict 25-35 crore for Fan … because it completely depends on how many screen it can get .
Let’s see !!
The funny thing here is, All three khan fans put allegations on @Indicine by calling them biased for other two khans, How can they be biased if all 3 khan fanbase were against them? Tough job @indicine?
I am SRK fan, he’s global phenomenon but it’s a truth his popularity decrease a little in India by some extent, and Salman, Aamir(only for movies) fanbase grow exponentially in past 6-7 years, Shahrukh will be back on top soon i hope but right now he is little behind.
@Indicine : Thanks for your response though I am still not satisfied with your answer. Going forward with your logic, trade might support Sallu while Raees VS Sultan clash, so you have awarded Raees with 9 and Sultan with 10.
But in case of FAN, there is no clash, plus no other movies releasing in next two weeks. So ideally, the buzz should be 10.
Anyway, you are in this business since a quite long time, so you would be knowing better than us.
So thanks again for the clarification.
@Fasal Kerala : Happy b’day mate !!! Keep rocking !!!
Is this a biopic on me or my fellow mate @xzone? ?? because I think this mostly connects to me. as I would also like to do all the dramas as king is being doing in this? but hold on, my fellow mate @xzone is much more expert in doing so many things for our idol king, so i think it more over connects to him. But yes, i would like to fight with my idol like the way his character gaurav is fighting against his idol. But I wouldn’t be like gaurav to act too much like a dedicated slave against his idol, but my fellow mate Xzone is very expert as his comments prove how much she is dedicated to act even more insane than gaurav.????
fan is coming on national holiday…ambedkarji birthday…and next day also holiday ram navami ….so its holiday release
“Glorification of Shah Rukh Khan may not be liked by a section of the audience, after all not everyone is a FAN.”
Important point right there.
@INDICINE: Please stop predicting negatives, and please take the below points for your final predictions.
1) Multiplex audience or Internet audience knows what is the film about and what to expect from it and also know the difference between Dilwale type and FAN type movies.
2) Small screen audience always wants something that they don’t have to put much brain in to and at the same time enjoy it and also take scenes/dialogues/sequences along and enjoy repeating among themselves. And all SRK negative performances DARR, BAAZIGAR, ANJAAN, DON, DON2 or even scenes with negative shades like CHALTE CHALTE party scene, HUM TUMHARE HAIN SANAM horse scene, DEVDAS scenes, etc are a big HIT among all masses.
3) And SRK FANs, which is huge crowd, don’t need to look for anything in the movie except SRK. We even went to watch Har Dil Jo Pyar Karega, Saathiya, Shakti etc.. just for a glimpse of the KING. So we ourselves ensure a 100CR domestic collection and a 200CR worldwide collection.
4) It will have a open release in India and also globally no big movie releasing that week and also IPL season would be an advantage because of KKR factor.
@indicine are you guys serious.
Fan and Raees. star cast only 9/10 and dangal and sultan 10/10. You gave 10 for Salman which is okey but you give amir 10 , this is ridiculous you mean amir has more starpower than srk.
If you guys think so then this is my sincere request that please come to the outer world and realize the reality.
Fan will be 200 cr and raees 250 cr for sure
@Indicine we are not talking about FBO or LBO…we are only talking about the starcast 9/10 for RAEES….
Which numbers u are talking about???
Highest opening day
Highest single day
Fastest 100cr in 3 days
All opening records belongs to SRK
Then why 9/10 for Raees and 10/10 sultan who’s muvi failed to beat the opening day in the same holiday….more number of screens …hicked price….
Which theory u used in this justify
Itss ur site ….u can do anything
But dont u think all 3 khans are having the power to pull the audience to the theaters
Then why srk is 9 and salmir is 10
BB is highest grosser for salman cause of WOM not bcz of Salman cause PRDP failed to beat any record after the huge succes of BB also
PK is highest grosser for AMIR only cause of WOM not bcz of
But in other hand HNY which got mixed response still broken opening day and opening weekend record …just bcz of SRK
Cause it is only ur theory and we leant it from ur site that the opening numbers are due to stardom or star power and rest depends on WOM
Woke up Indicine….woke up
In ur this article also u said…Every SRK movie has got good opening then how u giving 9/10 to the starcast of RAEES
There is SRK+NAWAZ+MAHIRA and in dangal AMIR only then how dangal is ahead of RAEES
@true akkian:
Bollywood films in reality are ultimately fantasy. Every sallu akkian aamir film was is a fantasy.
FAN is the biggest fantasy of them all. Never before seen vfx created face challenging thriller.
Also, even akshay should release movie on EID. No superstar should monopolize eid diwali, I’d daychristmas. If anyone claims to be India’s biggest superstar , he should release his big budgeted movie on NON holiday and beet HNY 1st day bo record of 45 cr.
Plain and simple.
@indicine:
What you guys think of your sense of Judgement.? You adjudged starcast for Dangal and Sultan as 10 and Raees & Fan as 9. Any logical answers.? If yes, then please explain or else don’t comment.
My predicion for fan
first Day 18cr
lifetime 145
Baaghi first day 8.2cr
lifetime 71cr
Happy b’day faisal kerala…
Fan opening day 18-19 crs.
Lifetime:
-110crs if WOM bad.
-130crs if WOM mixed.
-160+ if WOM good
-190+ if WOM excellent.
Romance Take: Fan openning 22cr Lifetime-250cr plus(with excellect wom not forget twmr did 150cr)
@Javed : True !!!
@Joe the loser 06:54 pm : Beta, come out from your shell. A loser like you don’t deserve my attention, but since you badly want to get thrashed, then Listen.
First of all you are not a man. Because if you are one, then you should come for a direct face-off instead of using SRKian tag in your name. Second, I spotted the clown in you that day itself, when you came with your first piece of garbage on indicine.
I understood that you are one among those millions of impotent clowns, who can’t come from the front but play their cheap tactics in background.
So have some shame and dignity you idiot. That’s all I want to say.
Komal Take:
Fan Opening day 21 cr
Lifetime 160 cr+ if WOM is excellent.
Dangal buzz is 10/10 in trade and among exhibitors. It is also arriving on Xmas with Aamir after 2 years. Aamir+Xmas is a deadly combo. That’s why indicine gave 10/10 to Dangal. Am I right, Indicine?
And Don’t be jealous, SRK fans. All three megastars are almost equal, they give this score for the buzz and not totally on star power. Get that.
Very good predictions..20 crore opening day figure is excellent for this kind of a film.but I think this 20 crore will be possible when it releases in 3300-3500 screens..if it gets around 3800-4000 screens then opening can be 22-24 crore..also,the ticket prices should not be increased..it is a film where every single fan of Shahrukh Khan should be able to watch it at cinema halls hence ticket rates should be affordable for everyone..And the lifetime business of 165 crore is also very good..I hope that it at least manages around 180 crore figure or whatever it needs to become a blockbuster..All the best Team FAN..I simply loved the trailer..