The response to the theatrical trailer and the ‘Jabra’ song from Shah Rukh Khan’s FAN has increased the excitement around the film, both in the trade and the audience.
We start FBO (First day box office) with Rs 20.5 crore, which would be a terrific start for a non-festive release. The makers have to now sustain the buzz leading upto the release of the film on April 15. Note: The final prediction will be made on April 14 (i.e one day before the release of the film)
Opening Day Factors in favour
- Shah Rukh Khan
- Well-appreciated trailer
- Jabra song in various languages has increased appeal and reach at smaller centres
- Surprise element of revenge in FAN has helped increase curiosity
- Comparisons with Darr and Baazigar has led to a feeling of nostalgia, the return of Shah Rukh of yore.
Opening Day Factors against FAN
- Inconsistency of director Maneesh Sharma; Band Baaja Baarat worked, rest were either flops or average grossers.
- Glorification of Shah Rukh Khan may not be liked by a section of the audience, after all not everyone is a FAN.
- Shah Rukh’s first non-festive release since My Name Is Khan. Exhibitors / YRF unlikely to price tickets at holiday rates (confirmation soon).
- Lack of universal appeal; doesn’t have those typical filmy ingredients which could both work in favour or against the film. But it’s certain to restrict business at smaller centres.
| Movie | Prediction | Official | |
| Wazir | 4.4 | 5.61 | + 27%, In accurate |
| Airlift | 10.9 | 12.35 | + 13%, Accurate |
| Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 | 9.3 | 8.15 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Mastizaade | 6.1 | 5.59 | - 8%, Accurate |
| Saala Khadoos | 2.2 | 2.19 | 0%, Accurate |
| Ghayal Once Again | 6.4 | 7.2 | + 12%, Accurate |
| Sanam Re | 5.5 | 5.04 | - 8%, Accurate |
| Fitoor | 5.2 | 3.61 | - 30%, Inaccurate |
| Neerja | 4.3 | 4.7 | + 8%, Accurate |
| Jai Gangajaal | 5.2 | 5.5 | + 6%, Accurate |
| Kapoor & Sons | 5.8 | 6.85 | + 18%, Inaccurate |
| Rocky Handsome | 6.3 | 5.39 | - 14%, Accurate |
| Ki and Ka | 6.3 | 7.27 | + 16%, Inaccurate |
| Fan | 21.9 | 19.2 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Baaghi | 9.4 | 11.94 | + 27%, Inaccurate |
| Azhar | 7.5 | 6.3 | - 16%, Inaccurate |
| Sarbjit | 4.2 | 3.69 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Housefull 3 | 17.4 | 15.21 | - 12%, Accurate |
| Udta Punjab | 8.9 | 10.05 | - 13%, Accurate |
| Sultan | 38.5 | 36.54 | - 5%, Accurate |
| Great Grand Masti | 5.8 | 2.5 | - 56%, Inaccurate |
| Dishoom | 9.8 | 11.02 | +12%, Accurate |
| Mohenjo Daro | 10.7 | 8.87 | - 17%, Inaccurate |
| Rustom | 12.6 | 14.11 | +12%, Accurate |
| Happy Bhaag Jayegi | 2.1 | 2.32 | +10%, Accurate |
| A Flying Jatt | 8.5 | 7.11 | - 16%, Inaccurate |
| Baar Baar Dekho | 9.1 | 6.81 | - 25%, Inaccurate |
| Freaky Ali | 2.4 | 2.5 | +4%, Accurate |
| Pink | 4.5 | 4.32 | -4%, Accurate |
| Raaz Reboot | 5.2 | 6.31 | + 21%, Inaccurate |
| MS Dhoni | 20.1 | 21.6 | +7%, Accurate |
| Mirzya | 4.0 | 2.2 | - 45%, Inaccurate |
| Shivaay | 10.7 | 10.24 | -4%, Accurate |
| ADHM | 12.4 | 13.3 | +7%, Accurate |
| Force 2 | 5.8 | 6.05 | +4%, Accurate |
| Dear Zindagi | 9.7 | 8.75 | -10%, Accurate |
| Kahaani 2 | 4.5 | 4.25 | -5%, Accurate |
| Befikre | 10.5 | 10.36 | -1%, Accurate |
| Dangal | 28.6 | 29.78 | +4%, Accurate |
Lifetime business
- After Happy New Year and Dilwale, success of FAN will be important for Shah Rukh Khan. He needs a film that’s well liked by the audience.
- If FAN does well, it could be a battle of equals when Raees and Sultan clash. If it doesn’t, Salman will have a serious advantage, atleast as far as the opening is concerned.
- FAN releases during the beginning of the IPL season and during a time when temperatures peak in most parts of the country.
- Quite a few holidays / restricted holidays – Ram Navami (Friday, 15th April), Mahaveer Jayanti (20th April), holiday in UP on 21st April.
- 2 open weeks before the release of Tiger Shroff and Shraddha Kapoor’s Baaghi on April 29.
| Movie | Word of Mouth | Prediction | Actual Collection | Difference | Result | |
| Dilwale | Mixed | 145 cr | 148 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Bajirao Mastani | Extremely Positive | 168 cr | 187 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Wazir | Mixed | 35 cr | 40 cr | 14% | Accurate | |
| Airlift | Positive | 143 cr | 127 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 | Negative | 34 cr | 31 cr | 8% | Accurate | |
| Mastizaade | Mixed | 29 cr | 32 cr | 10% | Accurate | |
| Saala Khadoos | Negative | 16 cr | 14 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Ghayal Once Again | Mixed | 39 cr | 36 cr* | 8% | Accurate | |
| Sanam Re | Mixed | 28 cr | 29 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Fitoor | Extremely Negative | 23 cr | 19 cr | 17% | Inaccurate | |
| Neerja | Positive | 70 cr | 74 cr | 6% | Accurate | |
| Teraa Surroor | Negative | 12 cr | 13 cr | 8% | Accurate | |
| Rocky Handsome | Negative | 26 cr | 25 cr | 4% | Accurate | |
| Jai Gangaajal | Negative | 33 cr | 32 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Kapoor & Sons | Positive | 66 cr | 72 cr | 9% | Accurate | |
| Ki And Ka | Positive | 54 cr | 53 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Fan | Negative | 95 cr | 84 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Baaghi | Positive | 84 cr | 75 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Azhar | Negative | 35 cr | 33 cr | 5% | Accurate | |
| Sarabjit | Mixed | 26 cr | 28 cr | 7% | Accurate | |
| Housefull 3 | Mixed | 105 cr | 107 cr | 2% | Accurate | |
| Udta Punjab | Mixed | 72 cr | 59 cr | 18% | Inaccurate | |
| Sultan | Positive | 305 cr | 302 cr | 1% | Accurate | |
| Dishoom | Mixed | 62 cr | 69 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Mohenjo Daro | Negative | 54 cr | 59 cr | 9% | Accurate | |
| Rustom | Positive | 102 cr | 126 cr | 23% | Inaccurate | |
| Happy Bhag Jayegi | Mixed | 21 cr | 26 cr | 24% | Inaccurate | |
| A Flying Jatt | Negative | 33 cr | 37 cr | 12% | Accurate | |
| Akira | Mixed | 27 cr | 28 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Baar Baar Dekho | Negative | 38 cr | 31 cr | 18% | Inaccurate | |
| Raaz Reboot | Negative | 28 cr | 27 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Pink | Positive | 54 cr | 65 cr | 20% | Inaccurate | |
| M S Dhoni biopic | Mixed | 138 cr | 133 cr | 4% | Accurate | |
| Mirzya | Negative | 9 cr | 10 cr | 11% | Accurate | |
| Shivaay | Mixed | 95 cr | 96 cr | 1% | Accurate | |
| Ae Dil Hai Mushkil | Mixed | 102 cr | 111 cr | 9% | Accurate | |
| Rock On 2 | Negative | 13 cr | 10 cr | 23% | Inaccurate | |
| Force 2 | Mixed | 35 cr | 34 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Dear Zindagi | Positive | 65 cr | 66 cr | 1% | Accurate | |
| Befikre | Negative | 58 cr | 60 cr | 3% | Accurate | |
| Dangal | Pending | 315 cr | - | - | - | |
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Fan will cross 200cr for sure!
@indicine makers not glorifying Sharukh khan they glorifying Aryan khanna a fictional character…know the truth
@Naresh, Yes, but they’ve made it pretty obvious that the character is based on Shah Rukh himself. Everything from real-life locations (his house) to quotes from his own life. Even in Billu his character was named Sahir Khan.
Not bothered about First day or lifetime collections.
FAN should live upto the expectations of audience. Lifetime will be boosted up automatically .
But in the mean time, I was going through the comments of some fans (obviously , fans of so called superstars) . So they were like, Opening day should be above 30 cr, else it will be a big shame. Lifetime should be in the range of 175cr+, else it will be a big let down.
I mean, what is the reason for such expectations ?
On one hand, they say SRK is finished. On other hand, they are expecting such big numbers from SRK’s non-holiday release. Going forward with their comments, I came to a conclusion that deep down in their heart, even they know, about the stardom and fan following of SRK.
Else there is no reason, why they want SRK to do wonders with 30 cr opening and 175 cr+ lifetime, when their very own superstars struggled for a 20 cr opening and 120 cr lifetime on a non-holiday.
He’s yet to touch 16cr mark on non holiday opening day (not multistarer). FAN ke liye 20.5cr opening day kuch jyada nahi ho gaya???
I am going to watch movies in April
1, The jungle book ( Hollywood’s biggest film)
2, Baaghi ( Hindi Cinema’s big release)
not interested in flop fan starring flop star srk with bad content ie mixture of Darr, Bazigar, Billu, Samitabh, DHOOM3, TWMR ( SRK has copied Kangana’s Haryanvi Act as Gaurav )
Fan :: less than 100 Cr (With biggest positive reviews like ????? despite Crappiest Film ever)
Yes i too feel that movie will open between 18-22 cr. I predicted this even before seeing the trailer due to SRK’s strong fan following at Multiplexes who come to watch him , who can pay for him 500-1000rs to watch his films irrespective of the genre and film.
.
But i want makers to concentrate on Masses as they are thinking that its just STAR-FAN movie . They should be shown trailer once, as its a thriller too with loads of action. I want makers to promote trailer in T20 WorldCup and also they should attach with Kapoor & Sons and Ki & Ka movies too.
@Akshay 5:26 pm: GO and search the logic in Akshay movies. Don’t come and bark here for god sake.
@Indicine : I agree on this :
/*
FAN of RAEES
March 3, 2016 at 5:31 pm
@Indicine
One question which i am asking from last one month
Please reply me now
Why starcast of raess is 9/10 and why Sultan and dangal starcast is 10/10?????
*/
Don’t play hide and seek with us. If you feel, SRK’s star power is lower than Salman and Amir, no issues but open up and clarify our doubts.
Many people have asked it with time and again, so please respond to this question.
@Xzone, the numbers make it pretty obvious, doesn’t it? There isn’t much to elaborate.
All I want is, FAN should collect more than 17 cr on opening day and 120 cr in lifetime.
If this happens, I will rip the clothes off , of a particular fanbase.
Welcm @being gaurav
Simply flop fan hardly will reach 100 Cr because film has nothing new to watch
Fan is mixture mixture of some many films like Darr , Bazigar and more.
Srk’s acting as Gaurav too is copy acting from Kangan act as Haryanvi girls in TWMR
Do you really think Dangal Without clash will do only 270 crore whereas with clash Sultan will do 240 crore and Raees 220 crore respectively. Are you serious? Aamir khan is undisputed king of Indian cinema. Bookmark this article I want to see what’s your excuses will be after Dangal release.
@23.12.2016, why don’t you browse through other pages on our site and learn more about FBO and LBO? Do you really think we can predict if a film will be liked / disliked / universally liked / completely rejected even before the shooting is over?
Dangal could do 150 or do 350. Box office is unpredictable. For early predictions we assume word-of-mouth is mixed to good.
@Chuhe my loyal JACK 5:43 pm : Put some more conditions no..? Movie, which has only SRK and no other actors. Or the movies, where SRK doesn’t utter a single word.
If you will put all these conditions, then you can narrow down the opening day to even 5 cr. So do that please you loser.
Beginning of new era for the phenomenon SRK
Opening day will be 22.5 crores
@Indicine, First of all thanks,
Really upset for these reasons:
1. You are giving star-cast 9/10 in both srk movies but 10/10 in dangal with only aamir is the prominent actor in the film. Sultan has salman + Anushka + Randeep so i accept it 10/10. Raees has srk + Nawazuddin ( one of the finest actor at present) + Mahira ( well known actress) so it deserve 10/10. All this your drama indicated srk is way behind both aamir & salman in a diplomatic way. If you think as i said above then you have to change your mind, sorry!!.
2. Still you predicted 165cr after you saw the positive response from both trades & normal audiences. Apart from these, you still stick on 20cr opening. I am sure opening will be at least 22cr above. Movies like NEERJA & AIRLIFT already proved that NICHE movies can do outstanding business these days. If Sonam movie can earn 60+cr then SRK movie with same positive response can touch the every possible digits that we never expected in our dream too.
@indicine dont u thing makers of FAN released the trailer very soon
There is no song in the movie so how they will keep the buzz high till 15th april
Trailer should have released arnd 15th march
The update on FBO is absolutely correct according to me . You have kept your predictions realistic which is good after seeing the response of Dilwale and also the fact that it is releasing on Non Holiday . With Fan SRK should have his 1st 100 CR on Non Holiday unless something goes wrong horribly . The lifetime collections have been increased by 27 CR which is a solid response . It is too early to call Fan as brilliant because we have seen nothing much till now . Yes Fan is looking different than Ra.One, Don 2, JTHJ, CE, HNY and Dilwale . Fan is the biggest challenge for SRK in this decade and let’s hope SRK lives up to the expectations .
After pankha & rice chor queen will settle for character roles… Taking the position of Alok Nath and giving gyan to Varun Tiger Siddharth ?
i haven’t seen neither jabra nor trailer but its my sixth sense telling me its opening day will be 18 crore it is holiday release because of ram navami.
pros- high class audience will watch it
cons- lower class won’t take intrest.
conclusion another lesser footfalls but good collection of srk’s movie.
lifetime will be 133 crore.
@Indicine is going to kidding me now ?, every time this hakluCine favor their favorite star and try to pull SALMIR’s legs but MEGASTAR SALMIR always kicking both haklu and haklucine’s ass…LOL I wanna ask @Indicine how Billu Ka Pankha able to surpass 150CR mark on non-holiday? Is haklu has enough stardom to give even 120r on his own ?? ? and the answer is known to everyone A BIG NO! But Let them favor their favorite star but after release they and our beloved haklutards come up with some new excuses… ?!!!!
One JABRA Song is bigger than Salman work. One FAN Trailer is bigger than Aamir acting. One FAN Film will be bigger than entire Bollywood
Fan 165cr noway. It’s hardly 80-90cr
@Megastar HRITHIK 5:50pm, At least SRK is copying himself, not from others unlike your idol who is doing copy-paste from others like SRK from the debut to till date.
@indicine plz correct sudh Desi Romance also a clean hit by manesh sharma
#FAN is next Daar #Raees is next Bazigar the king is back
sureshot 200
@indicine for god sake now plz don’t ircrease 1st day .. I bet 27cr+ is on.. Mark my cmment
Lets be more practical. My idol is a good or say very good actor, but calling him a superstar without multiple factors support sounds like a joke isn’t it? I mean without Biggest Banners, Most number of festival releases among all big stars, my beloved ICON SRK’s limit is only about 70 Cr as seen with my name is khan. So I am not expecting such huge, unrealistic predictions for fan. My prediction is 95 Cr if received extremely well. Maine to mannat maani hai ki agar fan 100 Cr bhi karle, to me 1 din me dus baar Mandir jaaunga.
@Indicine 5:56 pm : Thank you for the clarification. So you consider SRK as a smaller star in comparison of Sallu and Amir. No issues, it’s your view and I respect that.
But don’t you think you are contradicting your own theory.
Multiple times you have said that star power should be judged based on the opening day/opening weekend numbers and not based on lifetime ( as lifetime depends upon content and WOM).
So let’s talk about SRK’s last three releases :
1. Chennai Express :
Thrashed the existing opening day and opening weekend record. (Though it thrashed the lifetime record too, but won’t go into that as you told lifetime depends upon WOM and not on star power).
2. Happy New Year :
Established a new record for opening day, which is still there and no body has surpassed it till date.
Created a new opening weekend record.
3. Dilwale :
Released on 3000 screens (won’t count the clash factor here as CLASH starts impacting a movie after first weekend or say first Sunday) , still collected 21 cr and you yourself said once, that if it would have been released solo, it would have crossed or matched the 27 cr record of PK.
So sir, with all due respect, may I know what made you to change your perception about SRK?
And yes, please don’t think about future. If SRK movies start performing poorly, even on opening day and weekend, I will accept that he is below Salman and Amir.
But when his last three movies have performed so well , why are you underestimating his star power like this?
Last Diwali, Salman was having the same holiday advantage (with more number of screens and slightly hiked ticket price), still he failed to cross HNY’s opening day and weekend record. Don’t you think, it defines the supremacy of SRK ..?
At the end, I would say just one thing. It’s your website and you are the decision making authority here, so you can put even “4” for SRK’s star power, but if you have any answer for my above question, please do share.
Thank you.
@xzone, FBO and LBO is not about our point of view. It’s a reflection of trade expectations and standing in the industry. We don’t just pull these numbers out, there is research involved.
@indicine no need to be so hypocrite. You are doing a lot of chamcha giri of Srk and Salman and I have been noticing that you are anti aamir because he is numero uno unchallenged and undisputed box office king srk and Salman can never compete with them and so you are frustrated with biggest megastar aamir khan. If film cant be predicted before the shooting is over than why have you predicted sultan to cross 200 Cr with clash despite not knowing anything about it? It could do either only 120 Cr life time to 230 Cr life time depending on how good the film is. You are a hypocrite site do dont be harsh with your readers as you act like a fanatic site most of the time to certain actors. So get this simple thing before advising us.