Dangal IndicineLBO Lifetime Box Office Prediction

Films that go on to collect 250 crore plus at the box office are very difficult to predict, because even a single holiday or the boost which Christmas and New year give through the 7-10 days - can make a big difference to the final total.

Aamir Khan’s Dangal was proving to be even more difficult to predict because the film isn’t an out-and-out commercial entertainer, it did not have those extra holidays for Christmas or New Year (both fall on the weekly Sunday holiday this year) and there weren’t too many clues in the trend in the first two days.

It was expected to be more for the classes (city audience at multiplexes) than the masses.

But the unexpected big jump on Sunday and the growth at mass-centres too, could be indicators that the film is heading towards a long and successful run at the box office. Even though the presentation is not commercial or colourful, Dangal is strong on humour (first half) and emotion (second half). From the various reports that we have been getting from exhibitors across the country, the film has something in it for every section of the audience – even the older generation is coming out to watch the film.

The other factor is ‘tax free’ status which will give a boost to the ‘net collections’. More states could come forward to give the film tax exemption. The list which started with Uttar Pradesh, now has grown to 4 states – including Uttarakhand, Chattisgarh and Haryana. If a few other states join the list, then Dangal will find it much easier to put up a big lifetime total. (Tax exemption also helps reduce ticket prices, which brings in more audience to theatres.. thereby increasing the collections of the film)

So when so many factors are involved, including tax exemption, it’s difficult to put a single number to a film that has performed extraordinarily well in the first weekend – but has to maintain its high level of business for the next 10 days to challenge some of the biggest grosser.

We are going with 315 crore as the lifetime collections of Aamir Khan’s Dangal. If a total in this range is achieved, it will be history in the making as it would be the first film to do so without a full national holiday. Dangal could also become the first film without a popular leading lady to cross the 300 crore mark.

Factors in favour of Dangal

• Tax exemption in several states
• 3 open weeks before Ok Jaanu and nearly 5 open weeks before Raees and Kaabil
• Extraordinary word-of-mouth, smaller centres have shown good growth too
• The Aamir Khan brand will bring in more people to theatres
• Strong appeal towards the family audience, key for major grossers
• Outstanding first weekend
• Christmas – New Year period is good for film business

Factors against Dangal

• No major holidays.
• Whether the film will get repeat-viewers will remain a big question.

That’s our last LBO prediction of the year. Even if we do not get Dangal right, it’s been a good year for IndicineLBO.

Movie	Word of Mouth		Prediction	Actual Collection	Difference	Result
Dilwale	Mixed		145 cr	148 cr	2%	Accurate
Bajirao Mastani	Extremely Positive		168 cr	187 cr	12%	Accurate
Wazir	Mixed		35 cr	40 cr	14%	Accurate
Airlift	Positive		143 cr	127 cr	11%	Accurate
Kya Kool Hai Hum 3	Negative		34 cr	31 cr	8%	Accurate
Mastizaade	Mixed		29 cr	32 cr	10%	Accurate
Saala Khadoos	Negative		16 cr	14 cr	12%	Accurate
Ghayal Once Again	Mixed		39 cr	36 cr*	8%	Accurate
Sanam Re	Mixed		28 cr	29 cr	3%	Accurate
Fitoor	Extremely Negative		23 cr	19 cr	17%	Inaccurate
Neerja	Positive		70 cr	74 cr	6%	Accurate
Teraa Surroor	Negative		12 cr	13 cr	8%	Accurate
Rocky Handsome	Negative		26 cr	25 cr	4%	Accurate
Jai Gangaajal	Negative		33 cr	32 cr	3%	Accurate
Kapoor & Sons	Positive		66 cr	72 cr	9%	Accurate
Ki And Ka	Positive		54 cr	53 cr	2%	Accurate
Fan	Negative		95 cr	84 cr	11%	Accurate
Baaghi	Positive		84 cr	75 cr	11%	Accurate
Azhar	Negative		35 cr	33 cr	5%	Accurate
Sarabjit	Mixed		26 cr	28 cr	7%	Accurate
Housefull 3	Mixed		105 cr	107 cr	2%	Accurate
Udta Punjab	Mixed		72 cr	59 cr	18%	Inaccurate
Sultan	Positive		305 cr	302 cr	1%	Accurate
Dishoom	Mixed		62 cr	69 cr	11%	Accurate
Mohenjo Daro	Negative		54 cr	59 cr	9%	Accurate
Rustom	Positive		102 cr	126 cr	23%	Inaccurate
Happy Bhag Jayegi	Mixed		21 cr	26 cr	24%	Inaccurate
A Flying Jatt	Negative		33 cr	37 cr	12%	Accurate
Akira	Mixed		27 cr	28 cr	3%	Accurate
Baar Baar Dekho	Negative		38 cr	31 cr	18%	Inaccurate
Raaz Reboot	Negative		28 cr	27 cr	3%	Accurate
Pink	Positive		54 cr	65 cr	20%	Inaccurate
M S Dhoni biopic	Mixed		138 cr	133 cr	4%	Accurate
Mirzya	Negative		9 cr	10 cr	11%	Accurate
Shivaay	Mixed		95 cr	96 cr	1%	Accurate
Ae Dil Hai Mushkil	Mixed		102 cr	111 cr	9%	Accurate
Rock On 2	Negative		13 cr	10 cr	23%	Inaccurate
Force 2	Mixed		35 cr	34 cr	3%	Accurate
Dear Zindagi	Positive		65 cr	66 cr	1%	Accurate
Befikre	Negative		58 cr	60 cr	3%	Accurate
Dangal	Pending		315 cr	-	-	-