Dangal Box Office Prediction

Dangal is the big release this week and it cannot get bigger than an Aamir Khan film during the biggest weekend of the year. The superstar returns 2 years after delivering a classic, PK, which was a big success both critically and commercially. Unlike some of his last few films, Dangal does not have a acclaimed director like Rajkumar Hirani nor does it carry franchise value like Dhoom 3.

Factors in favour of Dangal:

• Aamir Khan: How can it not be the single biggest factor? Dangal has absolutely no face value apart from the towering presence of Aamir Khan. The director of the film, Nitesh Tiwari, has previously directed films like Chillar Party and Bhoothnath Returns. The rest of the cast is unknown with Sakshi Tanwar the only known face due to some of her popular television shows.
• Audience trust: No other star-actor in the history of Indian Cinema has been able to consistently deliver quality films like Aamir Khan. The belief that if a film features Aamir in the lead, it has to be good.. plays a huge role in the actor getting a solid initial at the box office.
• Universal appeal: During times when top directors like Aditya Chopra are directing films that can only be watched by a minuscule section of the audience,  Dangal is a film that is likely to celebrate the rural beauty and heart of the country. This ensures that almost every section of the audience can watch and enjoy Dangal.
• Promos: Almost all promos that have released so far have worked.

Factors against Dangal:

• Commercial aspect: The only factor that could hold back Dangal is the fact that the film is not very colourful nor is it an out-and-out commercial entertainer. It’s a sports-film like Chak De India, which could hold the film back on Friday morning – before the word-of-mouth comes into play.
• Demonetisation: The impact of demonetisation has reduced quite considerably in the last few weeks, but it could affect the business of Dangal at teh smaller centres.

IndicineFBO: We expect Dangal to collect Rs 28.6 crore on its opening day at the box office. The reviews are out and Dangal is one of the most critically acclaimed films of 2016. The pre-release positivity has also ensured that the advance booking, which was at Sultan’s level a couple of days ago, has caught up almost all over. We expect Dangal to take the second best opening of the year after Sultan and then pick up evening onwards depending on how the audience take to the film.

Stay tuned for our IndicineLBO prediction on Sunday.