Dabangg 2 HIT or FLOP: Box Office Prediction

It’s that time of the year when history was made and box office records were smashed. Yes, we are talking about the Christmas weekend.

Aamir Khan’s Ghajini in 2008 was the first film to cross 100 crores and a year later 3 Idiots became the first (and only) film to surpass the 200 crore mark at the domestic box office. Fast forward to 2012 and who better than Salman Khan, by far the biggest superstar in India today, to rewrite box office records once again?

Dabangg 2, directed by Arbaaz Khan, releases in cinemas this weekend and the film is all set to conquer the box office. Before we get down to the predictions, below is a list of Salman Khan’s last 4 releases and it’s net box office collections:

• Dabangg – 140 crores
• Ready – 125 crores
• Bodyguard – 145 crores
• Ek Tha Tiger – 199 crores
• Total – 609 crores

The average is a mind-boggling 152 crores per film, and this does not include the revenue generated from overseas!

Questions being asked in the trade and amongst those who closely follow BO numbers is the same as most biggies – Can Dabangg 2 beat 3 Idiots? Can the film break the 32 crore opening day collections of Ek Tha Tiger? What about the 3 day weekend?

Well, Dabangg 2 will have the widest release for a Bollywood film in India (expected release on 3400+ screens). The advance booking has already opened at multiplexes and single screens. The response so far has been ‘very good’. There are reports that a few centres witnessed mini-riots to secure tickets for the first day first show of Dabangg 2.

But the fact that Friday is a working day, the opening day record is highly unlikely to be broken. We expect Day 1 to be around 20-21 crore nett. Two crucial days for D2 will be it’s first Sunday and the Christmas holiday (Dec 25th) – business on these two days will decide if the film can be the fastest to 100 crores.

Below is our detailed HIT or FLOP Box Office Prediction for Dabangg 2

Opening day: 20-21 crore nett. Presence of Salman Khan, hit music, Kareena Kapoor’s item number, brand value.. should all help in generating good business on Day 1.

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• Weekend (3 day) – 62 crores
• Weekdays – 53 crores (Tuesday holiday)
• Week 1 –  115 crores
• Final – 180 crores+ (Blockbuster / All Time Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Weekend (3 day) – 56 crores
• Weekdays – 44 crores (Tuesday holiday)
• Week 1 –  100 crores
• Final – 140-145 crores (Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Weekend (3 day) – 52 crores
• Weekdays – 38 crores (Tuesday holiday)
• Week 1 –  90 crores
• Final – < 120 crores (HIT)

What are your predictions? Dabangg 2 HIT or Flop? Blockbuster or All Time Blockbuster? Submit your comments below.

Note: Box office is extremely unpredictable. We publish figures based on the genre of the film, response to the trailers, pre-release hype, star value and popularity of the music album.