Bajrangi Bhaijaan Hit or Flop: Box Office Prediction

The first festival release of the year is finally here and it’s Salman Khan who yet again returns during the auspicious weekend of Eid, to re-establish his supremacy at the box office.

Quite a few big films have released in the first half of 2015, but it was Varun Dhawan’s ‘ABCD 2’ that took the biggest opening so far this year. The current record of Rs 14.3 crore set by ‘ABCD 2’ is likely to be doubled by ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’.

A quick look at the opening day figures of Eid releases in the last few years, reveals that the year-on-year growth was staggering between 2010 to 2012, but has slowed down in the last couple of years. Do note that all films, except last year’s KICK, released on or after the Eid holiday.

• 2010: Dabangg (1800 screens) – 14.5 crore
• 2011: Bodyguard (2250 screens) – 21 crore (45% growth)
• 2012: Ek Tha Tiger (3300 screens) – 32.9 crore (56% growth)
• 2013: Chennai Express (3700 screens) – 33.12 crore (0.6% growth)
• 2014: Kick (4000 screens) – 26.52 cr (20% drop. Pre Eid)

KICK released on a working day, during Ramadan, when majority of muslim audience don’t watch films in theatres. The benefit of a holiday, as per our estimates, is around 35% . So Salman’s last Eid release cannot really be compared with films that released between 2010-2013.

Moving on to this year’s ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’, the film is set for a huge opening at the box office tomorrow and the advance booking is by far the best for films released this year.

As part of IndicineFBO, our opening day predictions of films, we expect Bajrangi Bhaijaan to collect around 30-31 crore on Day 1. If the film does manage to collect 30 crore+ on its first day, it will be considered outstanding because of two reasons. One, like last year’s Kick, Bajrangi Bhaijaan too is releasing on a working day during the Ramadan period. Secondly, last week’s Telugu film ‘Baahubali: The Beginning’ is on a historic run at the box office. The strong hold of the film during the weekdays, has meant that exhibitors have given the film enough number of shows this week too. In circuits like Andhra/Nizam and Mysore, ‘Baahubali’ will definitely affect the collections of the Salman Khan starrer.

Check out the #IndicineFBO table below

Movie	Prediction	Official
Tevar	6.5	7.05 cr	+ 8%
Alone	4	3.50 cr	- 12%
Hawaizaada	1.25	0.6 cr	- 52%
Khamoshiyan	1.75	1.92 cr	+ 9%
Baby	8.5	9.30 cr	+ 9%
Dolly Ki Doli	1.6	1.75 cr	+ 9%
Shamitabh	4.0	3.5 cr	- 12%
Roy	8.5	10.4	+ 22%
Badlapur	6.5	7 cr	+ 7%
Dum Laga Ke Haisha	1.25	1.1	- 12%
Ab Tak Chhappan 2	1.1	1.25	+ 13%
NH10	2.75	3.35	+ 22%
Detective Byomkesh Bakshy	4.5	4.25	- 5%
Ek Paheli Leela	5.25	5.30	+ 1%
Mr X	4.2	4.5	+ 7%
Margarita With A Straw	0.2	0.23	+ 1%
Gabbar Is Back	13	13.05	0%
Piku	5.5	5.32	- 3%
Bombay Velvet	9.5	5.2	- 45%
Tanu Weds Manu Returns	7.05	8.85	+ 25%
Welcome To Karachi	1.5	1.5	0%
Dil Dhadakne Do	9.5	10.53	+ 11%
Hamari Adhuri Kahani	5.75	5.04	- 12%
ABCD 2	12.5	14.3	+ 14%
Bajrangi Bhaijaan	30.4	27.25	- 10%
Drishyam	5.25	5.3	+ 1%
Bangistan	2.5	1.1	- 56%
Brothers	15.5	15.2	- 2%
All Is Well	3.1	2.9	- 6%
Manjhi	1.4	1.4	0%
Phantom	7.6	8.46	11%
Welcome Back	11.5	14.35	+ 24%
Hero	7.5	6.85	- 8%
Katti Batti	4.6	5.28	- 14%
Calendar Girls	1.5	1.5	0%
Kis Kisko Pyaar Karoon	4.5	10.15	+ 125%
Singh Is Bling	18.6	20.67	+11%
Talvar	3.3	3.0	-9%
Jazbaa	4.5	4.23	-6%
Pyaar Ka Punchnama 2	3.3	6.80	+ 103%
Shaandaar	14.7	13.1	-11%
Prem Ratan Dhan Payo	43.6	41.75	-4%
Tamasha	11.7	10.87	7%
Hate Story 3	9.4	9.72	3%
Dilwale	25.2	21	- 16%
Bajirao Mastani	11.5	12.8	+ 11%

Check out the detailed box office predictions of Bajrangi Bhaijaan

IF VERY GOOD (positive word-of-mouth)

• Day 1 – 31 cr
• Day 2 – 40 cr
• Day 3 – 34 cr (Sunday)
• Weekend – 105 cr
• First Week – 165 cr
• Final – 250 cr+ (Blockbuster)

IF AVERAGE (mixed response)

• Day 1 – 30 cr
• Day 2 – 38 cr
• Day 3 – 32 cr (Sunday)
• Weekend – 100 cr
• First Week – 150 cr
• Final – 210 cr (Super Hit)

IF BAD (worst case scenario)

• Day 1 – 29 cr
• Day 2 – 34 cr
• Day 3 – 27 cr (Sunday)
• Weekend – 90 cr
• First Week – 125 cr
• Lifetime – 155 cr (Average +)

Some other points

• Bajrangi Bhaijaan Screen count : 4100 screens + 700 screen overseas
• Bajrangi Bhaijaan Advance Booking: Outstanding.
• Bajrangi Bhaijaan Budget – 90 crore (approx)
• Releasing on non-holiday and Ramadan period
• 2nd and 3rd day of release is national holiday for Eid and Sunday. Huge advantage if the word of mouth is excellent.
• No competition from major films for 2 weeks.
• First Salman film is almost a year.
• The last mass entertainer that featured a massy-hero and brought back the single-screen audience was Gabbar Is Back, even though Tanu Weds Manu Returns and ABCD 2 did well at single-screens.

What are your expectations from Salman Khan’s Bajrangi Bhaijaan? How much do you think the film will collect at the box office. Will it be a flop, hit or a blockbuster? Tell us in the comments section below.