AskIndicine Raees and Kaabil Special: Live Now

Shah Rukh Khan’s Raees and Hrithik Roshan’s Kaabil are the big releases this week and like every week before the release of a major superstar film – we have the QnA dedicated to the film.

Post your questions in the comments section below. Do note that 5 questions that are not related to Kaabil or Raees will also be answered.

Q. Any update on advance booking reports of Raees and Kaabil?

A. The advance booking of both films has opened only at select centres in the last few days. For now, Raees is leading. Full-fledged booking, across all theatres will open tomorrow. Wait for our detailed report on Tuesday.

Q. Can Raees affect Jolly LLB 2 business if it gets good word-of-mouth?

A. Both Raees and Kaabil can affect the business of Jolly LLB 2, if one or both turn out to be good films. In fact, if both films are well-received and trend well, then it could have a bigger impact on Jolly LLB 2. It’s one of the reasons why we’ve reduced the FBO prediction of Jolly LLB 2 from above 15, to just a little under 15. After the release of the two films and depending on the response they get, the FBO prediction will be adjusted.

Q. How much Kaabil needs to collect for Hit verdict ? Will the overwhelming response at the screening of Kaabil will help it to gain the momentum ? And this time please answer.

A. The ‘overwhelming’ response from special screenings can never be completely trusted, because most people who watch the film are close to the makers. However, a few people who we do trust, happened to watch the film yesterday and really liked it. The response it gets from the audience can be different, but Kaabil certainly isn’t going to be a washout like Mohenjo Daro. The pre-release reports are much – much better this time around and it should compete well with Raees. To answer the first part of your question, Kaabil could recover almost all the investment for its exhibitors at the 75-80 crore mark (depending on where it performs and how well it does at single-screens).

Q. Raees craze is above the universe… I have not seen such craze before for any film, it’s evident today when SRK came to Dubai for promotion…. Do you think it’s suicidal for Kaabil to release with SRK? I’m pretty sure, the 5 day weekend, Raees will cross 100 crore. Any chances for Kaabil to reach 100 crore in its lifetime?. I blame Rakesh Roshan for the downfall of Hrithik… My next fav after SRK…

A. Box office, like we all know, is extremely unpredictable. So it’s way too early to call the clash. Kaabil has gained momentum in the last 7 days, the makers have put out a few good promos and it’s managed to get a good single-screen release too. The buzz and interest only last for a day or two, after that it’s all about content. A 100 crore extended weekend (5 days) is only a possibility if Raees is loved and the other film is a washout.

Q. Which movie is getting more single screens?

A. Raees.

Q. How much Kaabil and Raees need to get on Opening Day to be called as a Bumper / Excellent Opening?

A. Occupancy has to be in the 80-90% range for Bumper opening, which is difficult.

Q. If Raees and Kaabil collects around same or Raees collects less than Kaabil then what impact will it have on SRK. Also given that Raees is a bigger film and SRK is the bigger star than Hrithik.

A. There’s a lot at stake with a film like Raees. Pre-release, it’s one of the most promising films of SRK in the last few years and Raees is ‘expected’ to maintain a big lead over Kaabil. But if the content of Raees doesn’t find appreciation and the film doesn’t do well at the box office, the first thing that will be questioned is the release strategy. You can’t decide to take on another big film and opt for such a big clash, if the film isn’t upto expectations. Secondly, other makers / banners will start eyeing the Christmas 2018 weekend. The film with Aanand L Rai is expensive and it needs a big festive weekend. So for all these reasons and more, Raees is an important film for Shah Rukh Khan. It has to perform, the stakes are high.

Q. What are the reports from Raees first screening?

A. We haven’t heard much.

Q. First of all, I have to say you that, you are always or atleast most of the time your brilliant when its come to Opening/life time Prediction… Congrats for that. Considering that ability of yours, how much would have been your Opening day prediction for Kaabil and Raees if they are releasing solo on the same date…?

A. It’s tough to get these predictions right, because there are so many factors involved and word-of-mouth can play a big role on the first day itself. To answer your question on what would the collections be like, if both films got a solo release – Raees would’ve crossed the 25 crore mark, while Kaabil would be in the 18 crore range. Opening day, non-holiday.

Q. What was response for Raees? I heard that there had a exclusive screening by SRK to some of the industry people.

A. It was for the crew and a select few others, hence the muted response. We’ll know by tomorrow.

Q. Well Indicine, you might not care to answer this, but I still have to ask, can’t your team make out that on what extent a negative campaign is running against Kaabil especially on YouTube? I mean just look at the comments there and the ratio of likes:dislikes. Every dialogue promo that came out has been explosive, still people are putting it down?You never seem to have taken a stand on that and give Kaabil it’s fair share of positivity.

A. Such things are to be ignored, because on the ground, in real life, when people pay to watch a film in theatre – they watch the trailer and decide for themselves, not based on the hit / dislike ratio or social media negativity. Be assured that such things make absolutely no difference at the box office, the better film will always find its way through. The only thing that’s important is, the audience who watch the film should like and enjoy it. Nothing else matters.

Q. What would be better for the industry-one film getting an amazing and a much better response than the other film or both the films getting hugely praised by the audience?

A. Both films receiving a very good response, is always the ideal scenario. There’s hope this time that both films will do well.

Q. How genuine or authentic are these reports from ‘special screenings’? Are they reliable? Since majority of the people who attend them are friends or people associated with the movie or production

A. Don’t believe it. Wait for the audience response on Wednesday morning.

Q. Will Akshay Kumar’s Crack release this year? Is Akshay doing 4 films in 2017 ?

A. No, it’s been pushed to 2018. And yes, Jolly LLB 2, Toilet Ek Prem Katha, Robot 2.0 and Padman.

Q. Can we say that PADMAVATI is the most expensive film of Bollywood till date. Excluding ROBOT 2.0 BAHUBALI AND I .as they are Tollywood movies.What are your views on it as how much it can earn if WOM is like Bajirao Mastani.I know its too early but I just want ur views.

A. It’s going to be the most expensive film. But Bhansali has shown with films like Bajirao Mastani that he can carry such films with scale and grandeur.  It doesn’t have the best of release periods for such a big film, but if a film like ‘The Jungle Book’ can go to nearly 190 crore during a normal weekend – Padmavati can do well enough to be success. The risk is always huge, because it needs to carry that ‘must watch’ word-of-mouth. Else, it doesn’t have the star power to pull the film to safety.

Q. Why do you keep portraying as if Salman and Aamir are bigger stars right now than SRK. Why do you not take into consideration that all SRK films of late have been clashes and SRK still holds the record of the biggest opener with Happy New Year at 45 crs? Having big grossers depends on the film and the opening depends on star pull which still SRK has the biggest?

A. There is no question of trying to portray something. Aamir and Salman are way ahead of everyone else at the moment and the entire industry and trade is aware of this. While opening is about star power – lifetime totals and the way films sustain after the first weekend is also very important. For SRK, his fans are coming out to watch his films, but the neutrals aren’t. Which explains why his films are doing well in the first weekend, but performing poorly thereafter.

Star power can be stretched beyond the weekend. For example, put one of the younger actors in the same film as Dangal and it wouldn’t do much more than 100. But Aamir or Salman’s reach throughout the country is huge, which is what is helping them take their films beyond the 300 crore mark. SRK has that reach and the potential to deliver a huge grosser, but his films simply haven’t met peoples expectations. His last film that actually did well in the long run (i.e lasted beyond the first week and worked universally) was Chennai Express, then we’d have to go back to Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi in 2009.

Q. My question is how is the buzz of the two movies Raees and Kaabil. Which movie has hit ratio chances as per today. Leave audience reaction aside.

A. Raees is leading by a distance. It will have a big lead on Wednesday, but the real test will come on Thursday when the family audience is expected to come out in big numbers. Their choice could well decide which way the clash goes.

Q. Why people are not interested in watching Rangoon? It seems a good and big budget film. Where is problem? Is rom com & love triangle time is over?

A. The problem is Vishal Bhardwaj and the look and feel of his films. It simply does not excite the audience. Apart from a small section of the multiplex audience in major cities, his films do not perform. It could be the lack of entertainment value, the common complaint we hear is that his films are boring and unexciting (critics and intellectuals aside, of course).

Not much has changed with a commercial producer like Sajid Nadiadwala producing Ragoon. For the period the film has been set, the audience expected Rangoon to be a lot more than just a love triangle. Let’s wait and see if the film has more to offer.

Q. Is it possible to Raees to open above 25 crore?

A. It’s not impossible but highly improbable. For example; If a 3-screen multiplex has a capacity of 15 shows a day, Raees would probably be running with 12-13 shows with a solo release. But now, exhibitors will retain one odd show of Dangal, and the rest would be equally divided between Raees and Kaabil. With just 7 shows and competition from another big film, it’s very difficult. Actually, a 25 crore total even with a solo release is extremely difficult. Bajrangi Bhaijaan opened at 27, PK at 26. Dangal two days before Christmas did 29.

Q. Can the clash still be avoided? Inspite of knowing that the clash will result in losses for both the film’s in best case scenario too, why hasn’t it been avoided?

A. Advance booking has begun at select centres, people have purchased tickets, theatres have been booked.. how can the clash be averted now? We’ve already spoken about how stupid the decision is.. the weaker film will be blamed for going ahead with the same date. Raees makers announced the date in a hurry and once they did, they couldn’t move the film after all the negativity that followed after the Eid postponement. Kaabil makers stuck to the release date, both because Rakesh Roshan doesn’t change his dates once announced and the fact that there are no other good dates. Last moment delays increase marketing expense, hence increasing costs. Which is why they wanted to go ahead with the same date.

Q. Kaabil team complained about the clash during the whole promotion while Raees team kept silent. What, do you think, is the best strategy ?

A. Complaining is a sign of weakness, which is understandable because Shah Rukh Khan is big and it’s not easy for anyone to take him on. The best strategy was the simplest one – release both films on different dates. Having said that, compared to what happened during Diwali last year, this clash is a lot more dignified and the main men from both sides are still good friends.

Q. Raees paid previews tonight?

A. We have dropped a message, but no official statement on this. One theatre in Delhi was selling tickets, which was sold out quickly. But we hope this isn’t true, the last thing we’d want is a pirated copy popping up on the internet before release.

Q. As Ind vs England T20 match will be in this weekend, don’t you think it will dent some collection of both movie? How much it will effect?

A. Yes. There’s a T20 match on both major holiday. Shows between 4 – 8PM will be affected by the cricket match on Republic Day. And on Sunday, the 7-10PM shows will be hit by the cricket match. The impact cannot exactly be put into numbers, but it could be somewhere between 10-15% on both days.

Q. How is the overall response of Kaabil till now?

A. So far, excellent.

Q. Xander cage verdict?

A. Flop and the word-of-mouth was extremely negative.

Q. Who is the bigger star in single screens – SRK or Hrithik?

A. SRK.

Q. Why almost all sequels are not as good as its prequel whether in Bollywood, Tollywood or Hollywood?

A. Sequels or Prequels are only made for films that are popular, loved or have a cult following. So when the sequel is made, it’s compared to the older classic. When expectations are high, the chances of disappointing the audience is higher. That’s one of the disadvantages of a sequel, but the brand or franchise value ensures a good initial.

Q. Which film has the potential to beat Akshay Kumar’s Airlift to become the highest grosser January?

A. Raees has the better chance, simply because it’s expected to take a better initial – closer to the 20 crore mark. But anything can happen at the box office, Kaabil could spring a big surprise too.

Q. Can it become SRK 2nd highest grosser after Chennai express?

A. The first target for Raees is to cross the 100 crore mark, after that it’s about beating Dilwale and crossing the 150 crore mark. That would be an excellent result for Raees. No film has crossed the 130 crore mark in the month of January and Raees would be releasing against another big film. There is a need to have realistic expectations, when it exceeds it’s always good for the industry.

That’s the end of the QnA session today. Thank you for joining us.