AskIndicine: Dangal Special

Q. What is the word-of-mouth of Dangal ? As compared with Bajrangi Bhaijaan , 3 Idiots, Chak De India ?

A. The word-of-mouth is excellent, but it’s too early to compare Dangal to films like Bajrangi Bhaijaan, Chak De India or 3 Idiots. Chak De India wasn’t as big as the other two, in fact it fell well short of ‘Om Shanti Om’ which released in the same year. Bajrangi Bhaijaan and 3 Idiots were universal blockbusters, it remains to be seen if Dangal can perform at that level all over India.

Q. I think Dangal will cross 400 crore now.. what are your thoughts?

A. Without extra holidays, it’s not going to be easy for Dangal to do 400. The lifetime collections of Bajrangi Bhaijaan was 12 times its first day business. Dhoom 3 was 8x and PK was 13x. Only 3 Idiots was 15x, but times have changed now and films these days tend to be more ‘top heavy’ (collecting more in the first week) than it used to be before. A film that showed better trends than 3 Idiots was The Jungle Book, but we cannot compare a local superstar movie to a Hollywood film. In short, Dangal has to trend better than PK and Bajrangi Bhaijaan without any extra holidays to get anywhere close to the 400 crore mark.

Q. Which Movie is the Biggest Hit of this Decade? PK or Bajrangi Bhaijaan?

A. Difficult to pick between the two. Both were massive blockbusters, although Bajrangi Bhaijaan sold more tickets and worked better at smaller centres as compared to PK.

Q. Can India match with total No. of screen count of China in coming years?

A. India has a long way to go before it can get anywhere close to the number of screens in China or the United States of America – both of which have 40,000 plus screens. India has around 12,000 screens, out of which 80% of screens are single-screens. In those, nearly 6350 single-screens are in five south states – Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamilnadu, Kerala and Karnataka. Most of those theatres play South Indian films. Per capita ratio is too low at the moment in India, but then the content isn’t upto the mark either. 99% of the movies that are released every year are not watched by 99% of the population. Even the biggest blockbusters are only watched by 5% of the population. It’s a huge difference from the time when films like Sholay released and were watched by 25-30% of the population in the country at that time.

The reach is very poor and the content of majority of films is even worse. The fact that the biggest of directors from the biggest film industry in the country, are now making urban films that are watched by less than 0.5% of the population.. says a lot about the state of the Hindi film industry at the moment.

Q. If the current trend continues, how much can Dangal earn in its lifetime?

A. The trend will only be clear by Tuesday – Wednesday, it’s difficult to make any firm predictions until then even though our LBO prediction will be out later today. Even if it does drop during the weekdays, the film still has a chance to grow and put up big numbers over the second New Year weekend.

Q. Which movie will become Highest Grosser of the Year? SULTAN or DANGAL?

A. At the moment, we’d still put our money on Sultan.

Q. What will be the loss for Dangal as Christmas and new year falling on Sunday

A. If Monday (tomorrow) was a holiday for Christmas, the film would’ve had another 30 crore plus day. But now we could probably be looking at a 20 crore plus total. The advantage is around 40%. New Year isn’t as big a holiday as Christmas, but it would still have given the business of the film a boost of around 25-30%. However, a lot of schools, colleges and offices remain closed during the Christmas – New Year period which does give business a minor boost on all days.

Q. Which one is a better film – Dangal or Sultan? And why?

A. Dangal will work better at bigger centres, while Sultan – the more commercial and entertaining film – will be the pick of masses. Not to forget that Sultan had those ingredients – popular leading lady, romance, heroism (which the masses love) and it was very well packaged. Dangal is way more real, not too many cinematic liberties were taken. So it did come as a surprise when the film opened so well, it’s the trust in the Aamir Khan brand that’s bringing the audience to theatres. Salman generates craze, Aamir commands respect and trust of the audience.. that’s probably the biggest difference between the top two and they make films knowing this and working around their strengths.

Q. Whats is footfalls of Dangal in 2 days as compare to Sultan BB and PK movie..?

A. Can’t put numbers yet because of varied ticket prices. But it would be Sultan, Bajrangi Bhaijaan, Dangal and PK. In that order. Day 1 only.

Q. Would Dangal now cross Sultan which you have always answered in negative.

A. There is no question of any negativity. We can only make realistic predictions, it does not make any sense to talk about 400 crore plus, when even 300 crore is difficult to achieve – that too without extra holidays. The first weekend business will be around 103 crore, so doing triple of the weekend business is a long way away. More in the LBO article.

Q. Hats off to you Team Indicine as you are doing the Askindicine even on Christmas. I agree that Dangal is a very outstanding film. But don’t you think that Dangal lacks that repeat value to be able to attain that big numbers that almost everyone is expecting from it. May be Dangal will have more unique viewers that the big grossers such as Bajrangi Bhaijaan and PK but the lack of repeat viewers will act as a barrier for it. Your take on this.

A. Repeat-viewing, extra holidays, excellent word-of-mouth, universal appeal, entertainment value are all very important for a film to do 300 crore plus. Else it becomes extremely difficult, but there is one factor that works for Aamir and that is the section of audience who don’t usually watch film, but make it a point to watch Aamir films. He gets those extra audience, which makes predicting his films the toughest.

Q. How is the Buzz of Kaabil right now? I heard 3rd Trailer of Kaabil is coming is it true?

A. No third trailer. The makers are happy with the response that the second trailer has got, it had received a much better response as compared to the first.

Q. It’s easy to give a big hit with a commercial massy movie for even young stars leave apart big superstars but real test is to do so with off beat classy movies which Aamir is doing on consistent basis be it Lagaan, Rang De Basanti, Taare Zameen Par, 3 Idiots, PK or Dangal (even Talaash which was moderate success). What is the reason behind this according to you?

A. We have already mentioned the reasons in other questions, but just to add one more point; there is novelty factor that is attached to Aamir Khan films. Every outing is different, he has something new to offer with every new film. He doesn’t usually play larger-than-life characters. His real personality is hidden and he plays the character. He makes people curious about his films and over-delivers more often than not. The audience don’t mind paying more for his films (he commands the highest ticket prices in the industry), something that only he can justify.

Q. How do you rate Aamir on basis of – Acting skills, Superstardom, Script sense, Marketing skills.

A. Acting skills, marketing skills and script sense.. all get a 10 on 10. None better than him in the industry. But when it comes to sheer super-stardom, there are other who are far bigger than him. Super stardom is about craze, not for the film but the star. When a star’s presence overshadows even his films and people lineup just to watch the star, it’s called super stardom or hero worship. Like a Rajnikanth vs a Kamal Hassan.

Q. What is a trade buzz for Jolly LLB 2 after the trailer as its seems to very serious film focusing on fake encounter of fellow Kashmiri?

A. Response to the trailer is mixed. Trade and audience response will be published on Monday or Tuesday.

Q. Has Dangal proved that promotional campaigns are nothing but waste of time & money??and also is the word promotion is overrated cause now a days only Good & inspiring story attracts mango peoples in most of the cases!!??

A. You have answered your own question, but not every movie has an actor of Aamir’s stature or script sense. Even otherwise, the city tours and various television appearances.. make little or no difference at the box office. Even the value of music is diminishing. The most thing thing is to get the trailer right, after that it comes down to the content.

Q. Wy have u stopped the detailed box office prediction which u used to do earlier. About first day and then weekend. If accepted. Word of mouth average and rejected. And also with it how much for the film to be called as blockbuster and so on. That one article was a huge hit with not only me but also others. Kindly start that again. Next question which is a direct one is. Has the buzz of raees come down, coz u have reduced the first day prediction from 18 odd crores to 17 odd. Do shed a light on that?

A. To answer your first question – those were ‘box office expectations’ more than predictions. But now that we make LBO predictions after release, we have stopped the previous format – otherwise people get confused and it gets difficult to explain. When we made our 3 Idiots prediction in the old format before release, it best case scenario was around 95 crore. The logic behind the prediction was that the film may not have ‘universal appeal’ like Ghajini which worked both at single-screens and multiplexes.  But it’s impossible to predict box office and what a film can do if it finds acceptance (like Jungle Book this year or Baahubali Hindi last year). But now, people are using those old pre-release predictions and quoting it as a ‘post release prediction’ on social media websites. It was for these reasons that we stopped those more detailed predictions.

As for Raees and Kaabil – since both films are releasing on the same day, it’s about the two films sharing the business on offer. Raees buzz hasn’t come down, but the second trailer of Kaabil has received a very good response.

That ends the QnA session for today, thank you for joining us.