2016 and IndicineFBO Predictions

IndicineFBO has completed two successful years. In the inaugural year (2015), we made 46 predictions out of which 36 were accurate while 10 were inaccurate. Films like ‘Gabbar Is Back’ were very accurately predicted, but there were prediction blunders with films like ‘Kis Kisko Pyaar Karoon’ and ‘Pyaar Ka Punchnama 2’ more than doubling our prediction. 

2016 was a much better year, as our worst predictions were ‘Great Grand Masti’ (inaccurate by 56%) and ‘Mirzya’ (-45%) – both films that were almost impossible to predict. A hugely popular franchise film like ‘Great Grand Masti’ collected just 2.5 crore on its opening day, it was affected by piracy and the real impact of it was difficult to analyse because ‘Udta Punjab’ did well inspite of piracy. Mirzya didn’t even get a face-saving opening at the box office, it was a disaster from the morning shows itself.

Our favourite predictions of the year, also happened to be the film that managed to collect the most on the first day. Sultan was very difficult to predict, because the holiday for Eid was postponed at the very last moment. A 40 crore plus opening was on the cards, but Eid falling on the next day meant the muslim section of the audience did not come to watch the film on Day 1. We expected the film to do 38.5 crore, it did 36.5 crore. A difference of 5%.

‘Dangal’ was equally difficult to predict. The film was neither promoted like an ‘event’ film, nor did it carry the craze that Sultan or Dhoom 3 generated prior to release. The advance booking too started slow, but gained momentum a day before release after positive reviews started pouring out. We expected to the opening to be around the 26-27 crore range, but added around 5% expecting the film to grow evening onwards. The prediction turned out to be very accurate, more so because not many in the trade were expecting it do more than 25 crore on Day 1.

‘Mohenjo Daro’ turned out to be an inaccurate prediction, but we managed to accurately predict the combined collections of ‘Rustom’ and ‘Mohenjo Daro’. We expected the two films combined to collect 23.3 crore, the actual collections were 22.98 crore.

We also managed to predict the winner of both the clashes this year. ‘MJD’ vs ‘Rustom’ was easier, because the promos of the Hrithik film had completely failed to generate any excitement. ‘Shivaay’ vs ’ADHM’ was a lot more tougher, because Ajay had gone all out to promote the film, it was more universal and it was the bigger budget film too.

The last 7 films of the year were all accurately predicted, with the difference of all films falling under 10%.