Note: IndicineLBO Update will be published every Tuesday.
The period between ‘Jolly LLB 2’ and ‘Badrinath Ki Dulhania’ has been extremely dull for the industry. ‘Rangoon’ sank without a trace and ‘Commando 2’ will also end up losing some of its investment.
It’s time to look ahead to the next few releases..
Badrinath Ki Dulhania (BKD): March is usually a dull period for the industry, but this week’s release featuring two of the most established young stars in the industry, has the potential to set the cash registers ringing. The industry is confident that the Varun-Alia starrer can surprise and a 90 crore plus total will be well within reach if it opens well. The negatives will be the exam period, the impact of which is extremely difficult to judge. However, unlike most other Dharma films in recent times, BKD reaches out to a larger section of the audience – so if the film does manage to find acceptance, it has the potential to be the much-needed ‘runaway hit’ at the box office, something that every other film this year has failed to do. The added box office interest is to see if Varun Dhawan can continue his winning streak. There’s Alia Bhatt too who was phenomenal in 2016, her presence is certain to give the film a big boost too.
Machine: Abbas-Mustan return with yet another action-love-thriller, in a film that marks the debut of Abbas’ son Mustafa. And even though Salman has quoted the ‘Don’t worry Mustafa..’ song, there’s plenty of reason for Mustafa to worry because the trailer hasn’t really generated wide-spread interest. It’s word-of-mouth dependent and unlike in olden times when films had space to grow, the audience isn’t even giving the ‘routine’ films a chance. If ‘Badrinath Ki Dulhania’ finds acceptance, it could pretty much eat this film up. The only hope is if Mustafa surprises and the film – with the stunning Kiara Advani – turns out to be a good one. The starting level isn’t going to be high (we expect it to fall below 3 crore), which means it needs to show big growth over the weekend and probably collect more than Friday on Monday! Difficult.
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Phillauri: The trailer generated quite a bit of interest, but since then, it’s been downhill for the Anushka Sharma starrer. It’s again one of those word-of-mouth films. Anushka is a top star and Diljit Singh is a superstar in Punjab, but it isn’t the sort of film that appeals to their respective fan-bases. Excellent reviews from the critics and then the push that some films get through social media (Pink, Piku etc) is going to be important.
Naam Shabana: Akshay Kumar’s Baby opened poorly at the box office, so the extension to that film which doesn’t even feature the superstar in the lead – is unlikely to get a big initial. It doesn’t have the credibility of a director like Neeraj Pandey either, but the promos have received a fairly good response. Content is going to be the key, we say that for almost every film, but it’s a lot more important for films that do not get an initial as compared to those that do.
Sarkar 3: If there’s one director in the industry who can really get the ‘dark thriller’ genre right (i.e entertaining and commercially successful), it has to be Ram Gopal Varma. He’s the master of gangster films too, but the biggest cause of concern is his form. A in-form RGV can deliver a brilliant film, but when he isn’t he can go horribly wrong. ‘Sarkar’ is his biggest franchise, it has a strong-cast led by the legendary Bachchan. The trailer has been received well too. We expect the film to cross the 50 crore mark, a excellent film can take this over 70.
The above films are important for the Hindi film industry, especially the bigger ones like ‘Badrinath..’ and ‘Sarkar 3’. If these two films work along with a couple of others, the Hindi industry will have something to show in the first 3 months before films like ‘Fast and Furious 8’ and ‘Baahubali: The Conclusion’ hit theatres.
Anurag Basu’s Jagga Jasoos has been delayed yet again and it isn’t even complete yet with reshoots taking place recently. There’s been news that the Ranbir-Katrina starrer has been pushed to July, but there’s no confirmation on the release date yet. It went on floors in November 2013 and there have been 5 new release date announcements. The trailer was released in December last year. The audience is quickly losing interest and the product itself is looking stale. This one neither has the kind of promos like ‘Raees’ nor does it have a Shah Rukh Khan to survive such long delays.
| Movie | Date | LBO | Actual |
| Baadshaho | Sep 1 | 73 crore | - |
| Shubh Mangal Saavdhan | Sep 1 | 28 crore | - |
| Daddy | Sep 8 | 8 crore | - |
| Kaalakaandi | Sep 8 | 12 crore | - |
| Simran | Sep 15 | 10 crore | - |
| Haseena | Sep 15 | 11 crore | - |
| Lucknow Central | Sep 15 | 13 crore | - |
| Bhoomi | Sep 22 | 20 crore | - |
| Judwaa 2 | Sep 29 | 125 crore | - |
| A Gentleman | Aug 25 | 20 crore | - |
| Secret Superstar | Diwali | 60 crore | - |
| Golmaal Again | Diwali | 200 crore | - |
| Ittefaq | Nov 3 | 25 crore | - |
| Padmavati | Nov 17 | 180 crore | - |
| Tiger Zinda Hai | Christmas | 275 crore | - |
| Ok Jaanu | Jan 13 | 26 crore | 20 crore |
| Jolly LLB 2 | Feb 10 | 112 crore | 116 crore |
| Rangoon | Feb 24 | 23 crore | 20 crore |
| Commando 2 | Mar 03 | 25 crore | 23 crore |
| Badrinath Ki Dulhania | Mar 10 | 115 crore | 118 crore |
| Phillauri | Mar 24 | 28 crore | 27 crore |
| Naam Shabana | Mar 31 | 30 crore | 35 crore |
| Begum Jaan | Apr 14 | 22 crore | 18 crore |
| Noor | Apr 21 | 10 crore | 8 crore |
| Sarkar 3 | May 12 | 16 crore | 12 crore |
| Meri Pyaari Bindu | May 12 | 18 crore | 13 crore |
| Half Girlfriend | May 19 | 60 crore | 58 crore |
| Raabta | June 9 | 20 crore | 21 crore |
| Tubelight | Eid | 146 crore | 125 crore |
| Mom | July 7 | 44 crore | 37 crore |
| Jagga Jasoos | July 14 | 57 crore | 55 crore |
| Munna Michael | July 21 | 33 crore | 35 crore |
| Jab Harry Met Sejal | Aug 4 | 67 crore | 63 crore |
| Mubarakan | July 28 | 45 crore | 57 crore |
| Toilet Ek Prem Katha | Aug 11 | 120 crore | 130 crore |
| Bareilly Ki Barfi | Aug 18 | 24 crore | 29 crore |
Kong Skull Island will be massive in India…
Dutt not included I know there are strong sources who say that it is postponed but still it is still not confirmed ….
Will you make prediction for SACHIN A BILLION DREAMS
Where is Dutt biopic and padman in the list
indicine dont underestimate machine it can go upto 300 crores also it can win oscar for best movie it has high chances to be highest grosser of the year
I Think TEKP Movie is Sure shot 100Cr+ and 2.O Can Easily Cross 200cr mark bcoz on that Day when it release Only One MoviE Release which is 2.O
Waiting for Sarkar 3. Glad you recognize old don RGV unlike others. He is India’s martin scorsese
@indicine
Why raees and kaabil are not there in your list?
Mark my words badrinath kI dulhaniya is a sure shot flop….hero meets heroine ,hero tries to impress girl with some expressionless acting and remixed pathetic dance sequences .heroine doing some fake nakhre ..but later on agrees to be dulhaniya of hero…now tell wt the hell was tat…will people waste their hard earned money on this…add to acting of alia and varun ….no chance
Only 160 cr for padmavati ??? O_o Why 160 cr ?? Bajirao was -> 370 cr WW and domestic 187 cr with clash ( SRK -Varun – Rohit shetty -Kajol) .. I think Padmini will do much more than that ….
I’m kriti sanon fan but @indicine ur predicting too much for #Raabta i think max 40-45cr lifetime! As off now let’s wait for trailer and songs first.
1. TZH-330 ( if it will relase solo )
2. Tubelight- 340
3. Bahubali – 180
4. Padmavati-190
5. Robot-175
6. Rehnuma-165
7. Badrinath- 85
8. Judwaa- 105
Where is Tubelight ?
Indicine where is ur prediction for dutt biopic??
@indicine where is the prediction for padman.
And the truth is indicine tries to hide it’s wrong prediction about kaabil and raeees in the name inflation…..?
If Srk imtiaz next will be like Love aaj Kal and Jab we met then 220-250 if like Tamasha and Rockstar then 140-160
GOOD WORK INDICINE…
TUBELIGHT 325 CRS AS IF NOW AND WILL GROW TO 350 SHORTLY…
TZH WILL ALSO BE 350….
LOL EXCEPT SALMAN MOVIES NO MOVIE IS 200 CRS….
ALL HATERS WILL BURN NOW
If Dutt biopic is releasing in christmas…its difficult for TZH to cross 200cr..coz of clash (want to see clash..coz salman never won a single clash in his life)
@indicine:isn’t jolly llb 2 is a clean hit at b.o?why do u say that every movie of this year is not a run away it..
MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT: It’s a request to all those people who are sitting next to Srk fans or Salman haters please hold them tightly, because after knowing that both JJ and Dutt is not clashing with Salman’s movie, suddenly they all have lost their so called Baap (Ranbir Kapoor, recently they all make him Baap), since their last hope is gone in vain now, they might commit suicide…….My request to all these Salman haters please don’t lose hope and try to search new Baap for yourself who might have courage to clash with Salman’s movie or try to meet Ranbir K and fall on his feet and request him to clash with Salman’s movie, maybe he change his mind again……LOL
In 2015 Salman’s two movies combine collection was 534cr…..And its a RECORD….
Now in 2017 Salman will break his own record…..Going by the prediction of Indicine it will collect 625cr (If all goes well) from 2 movies….
Megastar Salman Khan Rules……
toilet ek prem katha is looking very interesting I think it can do 130cr
I think Tubligh and TZH don’t have
potential to cross even 250 and
you are talking about 300
Padman
Sachin A billion Dreams
Dutt biopic
Ki prediction kaha hai
Please publish it also
@Indicine, why Raees and Kaabil are not in your list. Pls publish Your Own figure
Badrinath Ki Dulhania 100 cr
Phillauri 36 cr
Naam Shabana 40 cr
Sarkar 3 39 cr
Bahubali 2 160 cr
Half Girlfriend 95 cr
Toilet Ek Prem Katha 90 cr
Tubelight 340 cr
Munna Michael 75 cr
Jagga Jasoos 65 cr
Mubarakan 70 cr
Secret Superstar 85 cr
SRK-Imtiaz Film 150 cr
Judwaa 2 105 cr
Robot 2 135 cr
Padmavati 125 cr
Tiger Zinda Hai 325 cr
Really hope that BKD and Sarkar 3 will succeed. I also have strong hopes for Phillauri and Naam Shabna. February to March have been terrible except for Jolly LLB 2. The year started on a high note with three 100 cr grossers, let’s hope 2017 will be as huge as it started !
padmawati don’t have a festive occasion releasing on a normal weekend and that too in November but still 160 cr and the ring has the window of 5days extended weekend with partial holi day on monday and still only 175 crore
I just want that calculator which u r using indicine burn it and flow its ashes into ganga becoz at the end u will be humiliated while adjusting the collections reports ring 175 crore toh weekend me hi kma legi aur 2 week of free run will only boost up it’s collections with next major threat to it is baadshaho in September (as sid malhotra is not that big who can halt #$RK MARK MY WORDS POTENTIAL 250crore GROSSER THE RING
Shame on SRK, being such a global king, his movies are struggling to go past 200 crs.
His career is in a pathetic situation now.
Salman and Aamir are way ahead of him in business and popularity.
I hope he correct his mistakes and bounce back.