Analysis of Opening Day Collections of 2016

We are in the 9th month of the year, which is about the right time to look back at the year so far and analyse some films that opened well and films that disappointed.

Films that were above expectations on Day 1:

1. Sultan (36.54 crore): At the moment, Salman Khan shouldn’t be compared to anyone else. His star power and choice of films is in a different league altogether. Not just the opening day, but almost all the first 5 days of Sultan was about two times more than the second best opening of the year. That says it all, doesn’t it?
2. FAN (19.2 crore): Shah Rukh Khan’s FAN opened well at the box office. The film released on a partial holiday for Ram Navami, but was affected by the phenomenal run of ‘The Jungle Book’. Still, considering the fact that the film didn’t have too many commercial factors in its favour, the opening was good.
3. Rustom (14.11 crore): Akshay Kumar’s Rustom, which was expected to hold appeal only towards the multiplex audience, managed to comprehensively beat the bigger film of the week, Hrithik Roshan’s Mohenjo Daro. It was the first ‘excellent’ opening for Akshay since Rowdy Rathore in 2012.
4. Baaghi (11.94 crore): The timing of release worked big-time in favour of Baaghi, as the out-and-out action masala film opened very well at smaller centres. The presence of Shraddha Kapoor, who has a strong fan-following after films like ‘Aashiqui 2’ and ‘Ek Villain’, added tremendous value to the film. The credit for the opening went to Tiger Shroff, but that came crashing down when ‘A Flying Jatt’ opened poorly all over.
5. Dishoom (11.05 crore): At the beginning of the year, Dishoom was expected to take a big opening, but that changed after the release of the trailer (which received a mixed response). However, Varun Dhawan’s presence ensured a good opening for the film.
6. Udta Punjab (10.05 crore): To what extent the censor board controversy helped the film is debatable, but Udta Punjab took a very good opening at the box office. It also had a strong star cast (Alia, Shahid, Kareena – with the added star power of Diljeet Dosanjh in Punjab) which helped the film cross the 10 crore mark on Day 1.
7. Ki and Ka (7.3 crore): Ki and Ka was expected to be a word-of-mouth film, but the opening day collections did come as a surprise as the Arjun – Kareena starrer collected 7.3 crore. The film was about 17% higher than our FBO prediction of 6.3 crore

Films that disappointed on Day 1:

1. Great Grand Masti (2.5 crore): The lifetime collections of Great Grand Masti (3rd film in the franchise) was about the same as the first day collections of 2013’s Grand Masti – which pretty much sums up how disastrous the opening of the film was. Piracy put the final nail in the coffin of the ‘sex comedy’ genre.
2. Mohenjo Daro (8.87 crore): The Hrithik Roshan starrer was declared a disaster on the day of its release itself. When a film that has costs in excess of 125 crore, opens in single-digits, only positive word-of-mouth can save the film. Unfortunately, the audience had a better choice in theatres and they opted for ‘Rustom’. The Ashutosh Gowarikar directed film is the biggest disappointment of the year so far.
3. Fitoor (3.61 crore): The lead stars went all out to promote the film, but the unexciting promos resulted in a disastrous opening.
4. Baar Baar Dekho (6.81 crore): The music album was huge, Kala Chashma was a chartbuster overnight, the promotional campaign was aggressive.. but the audience weren’t too excited. The opening could have been even lower without good music.
5. A Flying Jatt (7.10 crore): Tiger Shroff was touted as the next big mass hero after the success of films like Heropanti and Baaghi, but ‘A Flying Jatt’ – which released on a partial holiday – opened poorly.