Predicting the box office collections of films at the very beginning of the year, before the release of trailer and songs, is difficult. But it also reflects the pre-release expectations that the trade has from films.
With 2014 coming to an end, we decided to look back and compare the actual collections of the films to the predictions that we made in January 2014. How many films did we get right? How many films fell short or exceeded expectations? Let’s find out!
Note: Links to our prediction articles, published in the first month of 2014 — Part 1 and Part 2
| Our Prediction | Actual Collections | Accurate or not | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Ho | 180 crore | 112 crore | inaccurate, film under-performed |
| Gunday | 75 crore | 76 crore | accurate |
| PK | 275 to 300 crore | 325 crore+ | fairly accurate |
| Holiday | 125 crore | 116 crore | fairly accurate |
| Ungli | 55 crore | 23 crore | inaccurate |
| Haider | 60 crore | 58 crore | accurate |
| Kill Dil | 70 crore | 32 crore | inaccurate |
| 2 States | 75 crore | 102 crore | inaccurate, film exceeded expectations |
| Main Tera Hero | 50 crore | 53 crore | accurate |
| Highway | 40 crore | 27 crore | inaccurate |
| Bewakoofian | 35 crore | 14 crore | inaccurate |
| Daawat-e-Ishq | 50 crore | 25 crore | inaccurate |
| Finding Fanny | 60 crore | 36 crore | inaccurate |
| Kick | 240 crore | 233 crore | accurate |
| Happy New Year | 250 crore | 205 crore | inaccurate, movie under-performed |
| Bang Bang | 225 crore | 180 crore | inaccurate, movie under-performed |
| Action Jackson | 105 crore | 60 crore | inaccurate, movie under-performed |
| Humshakals | 110 crore | 54 crore | inaccurate |
| Happy Ending | 80 crore | 21 crore | highly inaccurate, biggest disaster of 2014 |
| Singham 2 | 150 crore | 140 crore | fairly accurate |
| Mary Kom | 55 crore | 55 crore | perfect |
| Ek Villain | 70 crore | 103 crore | inaccurate, movie exceeded expectations |
| Hasee Toh Phasee | 45 crore | 39 crore | fairly accurate |
| Shaadi Ke Side Effects | 65 crore | 38 crore | inaccurate |
| Gulaab Gang | 30 crore | 15 crore | inaccurate |
| Creature | 35 crore | 18 crore | inaccurate |
| Humpty Sharma Ki Dulhania | 40 crore | 80 crore | inaccurate |
Predictions for 2015 will be published soon! Stay tuned to Indicine.
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Very cool article!!
Prediction is largely dependent on WOM and opening,it is not as easy as it seems..
And guess,you did’nt even predicted for Queen..the biggest surprise of 2014!!
@indicine we want from u 2015 predictions….
as I know only one movie can cross 300 cr this year n that will prdp…
It’s is great if movies like 2 states and ek villain surpass expectations. But I dont know why you guys thought Humshakals could cross 100 crores.
Only Race 2 has crossed 100, and even the promo of Humshakals was received so badly that Fox had blocked comments and likes on youtube. In all probabilities, it was always expected to bomb.
Predictions 2015:
prdp: 205cr
bb:220cr
jagga jasoos : 250cr
fan: 175cr
raees:180cr
bombay velvet : 225cr. Gud bye srk,sallu. Welcome ranbir.
Waiting for the prediction article of 2015…Interesting films lined up this year..
Youngistan films were underestimated last year but you can’t underestimate them in 2015 predictions..atleast Varun Dhawan and Sid Malhotra’s films..
Hny= NOT 200cr +
My Prediction for films JANUARY-February:
Tevar : 55crs
Alone: 35crs
BABY:130crs
Khamoshiyan:25crs
Hawaizaada:35crs
Shamitabh:45crs
Roy:60crs
Badlapur:55crs
@ranbir fan u didn’t add 1st rk release ROY….
don’t worry I will add
roy – 50 cr
Roy will not cross disaster besharam collection…
jagga jasoos – 100 cr…
Bombay velvet – 111 cr….personally waiting for this movie…
With Happy New Year it is okay. At least the film was a super hit. But Happy Ending was not that bad. Dont know why it flopped that badly.
Next year, I expect Dil Dhadakne Do and Fan to grow huge with positive WOM. And the surprise of the year could well be Badlapur, which looks very rich on content.
And I totally forgot Byomkesh Bakshi. It might even surpass Badlapur because Dibakaar has his own following in big cities
Shamitab will collect 100cr… Confirm…. Waiting for shamitab… Dhanush rocks…
My BO prediction 2015
BABY – 125 Cr
BADLAPUR – 60 Cr
ROY – 80 Cr
GABBAR – 120 cr if poor content
200 cr if rich in content
BB – 220 Cr
PRDP – 250 Cr
BROTHERS – 200 Cr
FAN – 200 Cr
SIB – 150 Cr
BOMBAY VELVET – 150 Cr
My Predictions for a few Big films this year :
Fan – 220cr. + if content is strong and appreciated, Sky is the limit. if content is bad and outrightly rejected, will underperform like Jai Ho and end up between 120-130 cr. max.
PRDP – 160 cr. Salman has been homongous with his Action flicks, but this one is touted to be a family drama, & guess what in recent years, non-masala flick hasn’t worked for Salman (Marigold, Main ur Mrs. Khanna, Heroes, God Tussi Great Ho).
Bajrangi Bhaijaan – 240 cr. The ETT Kabir-Sallu combo is back and they are gonna set the BO on fire this Eid.
Raees – 180 cr. Seems like a multiplex movie altogether, depends how the movie shapes up and appeals towards masses.
Baby – 90 cr.
Brothers – 120 cr.
Jagga Jasoos – 140 cr.
Thats why I always admire Indicine…So loyal…
Indicine predicted for hny and bb 250cr and 225cr but they collected 180cr and 140cr respectively(trade fig)…
As for 2015, my bet is on PRDP to be the highest grosser.
Movies I’m looking forward to in 2015 –
PRDP, Fan, Raees, Brothers, Baby, Bombay Velvet, Roy, Jagga Jasoos, Bajirao Mastani, ABCD 2, Detective Byomkesh Bakshi, Badlapur, NH10, Shamitabh, Tamasha, Tigers, Mr X, Hamari Adhuri Kahani, Dil Dhadakne Do, Welcome Back, Alone, Gabbar.
In 2015, Mr.X is the most ambitious big sci-fi invisible superhero film.
@Zeeshan
I hope Habib Faizal doesnt ruin it this time round. Initially I thought FAN was written by the brilliant Jaideep Saini (who wrote Chak DE) but Habib has written duds like Bewakoofiyaan and Dawaat-e-Ishq recently.
I’m expecting a very well made film from SRK. Hope Maneesh manages to make a good film.
If anybody remembers my predictions for our kings movie hny and aamirs PK was 352 crores for both so hny underperformed by near about 150 crores but PK will come close in next few days
It has been proved that the word of mouth is the key for a film to become a success.
ha ha ha loved the way indicine mentioned that our films like 2 states,villain,humpty exceeded expectations and how ungli ne umeedo pe pani fer diya.
@babaji I m shocked to see u r predicting just 55cr for tevar which should actually b the first week collection of the film.
anyways u hv history of poor predictions.still remember how after pk first u hd, predicted it won’t even cross kick and also u hd predicted hny won’t open well!!!
GET WELL SOON THULLU
@somebuddha chatterjee remember disaster fanny(deepika),kill dil(yrf),dawat-e-ishq(yrf) which did less than raja natwarlal (ugly heroine). Hahahaha..
Waiting for Mr.X
@somebuddha chatterjee
Arjun kapoor=3 hits.
Emraan = 13 hits.
Haha…. Disaster kill dil(yrf),fanny(deepika),dawat(yrf) did less than raja natwarlal(ugly heroine,local music company).
Hahahahah..rofl..
Nobody in youngistan can do Awarapan type role.
Awarapan is the best film of decade.
So emraan = whole youngistan.
Debate over.
@somebudha kapoor
Haha even 55crs will too much…lol
You r expecting 150crs from tevar..God save u
@lokesh malhotra u r really a dumb fellow.fanny collected 35cr from just 1200 screens and was a critical success while rn and ungli not only earned less than fanny but were panned by critics
dont lie….i remember a tweet of indicine
” after watching PK ..its safe to say that kick will remain as highest domestic grosser of the year “
@kshitiz when did I expect 150cr from tevar?I m.expecting 55cr first week that means I will b happy with 100cr lifetime
very honest post INDICINE , i hardly seen any site posting article with such conviction and honesty abt their own analysis… whether accurate or inaccurate is article ne Dil jeet lia yaar..!!
prdp will be highest grossers of 2014