#AskIndicine: Question and Answer session at 5PM

A lot of people have been requesting for #AskIndicine Question and Answer session today. So here we go.. we will try and answer as many questions as we possibly can, as it’s the first QnA of the year!

Q. Which film will be the highest grosser of 2016 between Dangal, Sultan and Mohenjo Daro? – Suchit

A. The top contender is going to be Dangal, simply because of the fact that Aamir Khan returns after 2 years and he’s also going to get a solo release during the most lucrative period i.e Christmas. Also, Aamir movies, more often than not, are strong on content which is the biggest advantage that his films have. If Sultan and Raees manage to get a solo release, then both films have a chance. Mohenjo Daro could score big too, the genre has got a huge boost after the success of Baahubali – Bajirao Mastani and Hrithik returns after nearly 2 years. The problem for 3 of the Top 4 contenders is that they are all scheduled to release on the same day as other big films. It’s almost impossible to collect Rs 250 crore plus when two big films release on the same day. Housefull 3 and Shivaay (set to clash with Ae Dil Hai Mushkil) have potential to surprise too.

Q. What is the release date for Raees if it does not clash with Sultan, as SRK hinted at moving away – Bhushan

A. Shah Rukh has said time and again that he announces the release dates of his films, only after it goes on floors. The risk with this approach is, lack of good release dates. A film like FAN, which isn’t a commercial entertainer (SRK himself said it’s a niche film), can be released even during a normal weekend. But Raees is a commercial massy film that deserves a big release, and all major dates are already taken. Post-IPL period there is Housefull 3, Independence Day weekend big films like Mohenjo Daro and Rustom are scheduled to release and Diwali has been booked by Shivaay and Ae Dil Hai Mushkil. Raees will be ready in a few days and the makers would want to release it as soon as its ready. So the decision could be between clashing with Sultan or opting for a normal weekend. They can’t release it before July either, because SRK’s FAN will be out mid-April and there has to be a gap of atleast 2-3 months between two SRK starrers.

Q. Do you think Ajay Devgn’s Shivaay will cross 200 crore in India despite clash with Ae Dil Hai Mushkil?

A. Even without a clash, Shivaay would have to be an extraordinary film to collect Rs 200 crore in India. With clash, it’s impossible. Diwali has just one major holiday, unlike Christmas where a film that carries good word-of-mouth has time to grow and take advantage of holidays.

Q. What is the top 10 distributor share of movies released in 2015? How distributor share is calculated? Does it vary week wise?

A. We will write an article on Top 10 movies with highest distributors share. Yes, distributors share varies every week. It’s the highest in Week 1, then drops in Week 2 and Week 3. Share is higher at fixed rentals, lower at multiplexes. There is a 4 year old article about this, it’s not 100% accurate today. We will update it soon. But do read, you’ll get a better idea about how box office works: Indian Box Office Model – Explained in detail

Q. Do you really think that Varun Dhawan is a bigger star than Ranbir Kapoor and Akshay Kumar? I mean, he is yet to deliver a 60cr+ movie without Alia and Shraddha and Dilwale is not his movie, it never was? – Sachin

A. It really doesn’t make any sense to take credit away from lead stars, just because the film also happens to star Shraddha Kapoor or Alia Bhatt. A lot of people here apply the same stupid logic and say Shah Rukh hasn’t delivered a big grosser without Deepika Padukone. Why didn’t films like Tamasha, Finding Fanny, Shandaar and Highway open big then? Varun has done just 6 films and his following is growing. Ranbir’s standing in the trade has taken a sharp dip in the last couple of years. Tamasha was expected to take a much bigger opening than it did and Bombay Velvet was disastrous – a 5 crore opening for someone who was considered to be inching towards superstar status, was shocking. Pre-release expectations and budget also plays a big role here – ABCD 2 was expected to open at 11-12 crore, it opened at nearly 15. Tamasha was expected to take a 14-15 crore start, it was much lower at less than 11 crore. Akshay Kumar is a superstar with a strong and established fan-following. Both Brothers and Singh Is Bling opened well, it’s content that stopped both films from becoming big grossers.

Q. What’s your expectations from Shah Rukh Khan’s FAN and Raees after an ordinary performance of Dilwale? – Rij

A. Not at all. SRK has been in the industry for long enough and his fan-following is too big for one film to affect his career. Brothers failed, but Singh Is Bling was unaffected and managed a good opening. Guzaarish failed, but Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara opened well. These big actors are largely unaffected by the underperformance of one or two films. Only when their films start to open poorly, will questions be raised. Considering all factors, the opening of Dilwale was better than PK last year. With significantly fewer screens, 30-40% fewer shows at multiplexes and various other factors, the difference between opening day of PK (26.6 cr) and Dilwale (21 cr) is just about 20-25%. The weekend, inspite of the clash, was still the 3rd highest of the year.

Q. Though we all know that no one else but Kangana Ranuat deserves the Best Actress Award for her role in Tanu Weds Manu Returns. But the truth is Deepika Padukone will win all the awards. Why?

A. She doesn’t attend awards shows and she doesn’t care about them either. The organisers do not want to award someone who is unwilling to accept or respect the award. Both are right; Kangana believes Indian awards lack credibility and organisers believe actors should attend and accept. Having said that, Deepika performed well in Piku, Tamasha and Bajirao Mastani.

Q. Sultan and Raees are Eid releases. 2016 has two Eids which film comes on which Eid?

A. Both are currently scheduled for Eid-Al-Fitr / Ramazan / July 1st Week.

Q. When is the Marketing Campaign i.e Trailer Realease + Promotions of Fan kicking off? As SRK is still behind pushing Dilwale promotions a bit more. Will Fan Marketing Campaign will be put to hold for a moment or will begin as soon as Dilwale concludes? – Durgesh

A. Should start towards the end of next month (February).

Q. My question is can Udta Punjab do 100 crore at box office, if it turned out to be excellent movie like Haider? Haider was released in just 1200 screens and clashed with Bang Bang has collected 58 crore at domestic b.o and turned out HIT – Sasha

A. Every film A-grade film with a favourable genre, has a chance of doing 100 crore at the box office. Shaandaar probably had the best chance for Shahid Kapoor, but it was a colossal disappointment. Currently, the trade isn’t having high expectations from Udta Punjab as it’s expected to have limited appeal outside metro cities. It’ll be a word-of-mouth film.

Q. What’s the difference between a ‘Flop’ and a ‘Disaster’?

A. A film is a disaster when it falls way short of recovering its costs. For example, Bombay Velvet had to do around 150 crore at the domestic box office, it did 25 crore. The distributor’s share was less than 13 crore for a film made on 100 crore plus budget. Humongous disaster. Same applies for films like All Is Well,  Shamitabh, Bangistaan and several others films. Complete washouts at the box office.

Q. Do you think Robot 2 will be first 200 crore (domestic) movie and biggest blockbuster of Akshay Kumar’s career till date?

A. The budget of Robot 2.0 is Rs 350 crore (officially confirmed, although makers of South Indian films are known to quote outrageously high budgets). If it collects 200 crore domestic, it’s a flop. It has to do much more. In Tamilnadu, Tamil films are tax free as long as they have a title in Tamil (which is why it’ll be named Endhiran) and get a U (universal) certificate. Since the collections are expected to be very, these two criterias will be met. Even then it will have to perform at the level higher than ‘Baahubali’, ‘PK’ and ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’ if costs have to recovered. All this is assuming the quoted figure is accurate.

Q. Is there any chance of averting the clash between Raees and Sultan?

A. It will be averted. After Dilwale vs Bajirao Mastani, everyone has realised that it simply doesn’t make any sense for two big films to release on the same day.

Q. What are the prospects of Ae Dil Hai Mushkil and Jagga Jaasoos after Ranbir Kapoor’s debacle this year? Has his fan following decreased, as I can see lots of hatred for him not only in this site, but in other sites as well?

A. Every actor goes through a low phase in his career. Salman Khan did for an extended period of time. Hrithik Roshan also had to go through a low phase after Kaho Naa Pyaar Hai. Actors who have talent, will make comebacks. It’s about that one film that turns things around. Jagga Jasoos is unlikely to be that film, the pre-release reports are bad. Ae Dil Hai Mushkil could be ‘hit’ that he so desperately needs.

Q. Who’s the highest paid actor and director of Bollywood? – Himanshu Kalia

A. When it comes to market value, Aamir would probably top. Followed by Salman and SRK. But the three Khans, either produce their films or take profit share. Reports suggest, Hrithik is the highest paid actor, he was supposedly paid Rs 50 crore for Mohenjo Daro. Edit: Market value wise, it has to be Rajkumar Hirani.

Q. Which is the best film of this decade so far (2011-till date) in terms of content, public appreciation and box office performance? Durgesh

A. Almost every film that we have rated 3.5 stars. On a more serious note, PK and Bajrangi Bhaijaan.

Q. Can you tell me which movie of Akshay Kumar can collect more then 200 crore? Hilal

A. Housefull 3, if the film is liked. But 200 crore is still a huge total, something that no film in 2015 achieved apart from Bajrangi Bhaijaan and Prem Ratan Dhan Payo.

Q. Do you think Hrithik’s Kaabil will release in 2016? And if it clashes with Aamir Khan’s Dangal, which film will collect more and why? Rahul

A. Yes, it could release in 2016. No clash though, it’s better to release a film during a normal weekend than clash with a big film.

Q. Who is the Music Composer of Fan?

A. Fan has no songs. It’s likely to include songs from Shah Rukh’s old films.

Q. There was news that Rohit Shetty has signed a film for Karan Johar’s Dharma Productions. Any update about that? – Rocko

A. Yes, the film is Ram Lakhan remake. Rohit Shetty will begin working on the script soon, it will have several changes. The core story line will remain the same.

Q. If Mohenjo Daro gets solo release on 15th August rather than 12th with 5000+ screen can it collect 50 crore + on opening day? – Avvnish

A. No chance of 50 crore.  It would have to be at near 100% occupancy at every centre throughout the day, which is impossible. It’s confirmed for 12th August release, 15th is Monday which gives it extended 4-day weekend.

Q. The trailer of PRDP and Dilwale was released 40 days before the release and Raees and Fan trailer is released long before. Do u think it is a write decision? Suyash Bansal

A. Will make no difference whatsoever, although we believe it’s always better to tease the audience with something and then not make them wait for too long. The trailers weren’t released though, all of them were just teasers.

Q. Fitoor vs Sanam Re. On which film would you put your money? Saikat

A. Fitoor. Abhishek Kapoor is a terrific director.

Q. How much does Airlift need to do hit business? – Siraj

A. Airlift would recover its cost at around the 65- 70 crore mark.

We have answered 24 questions already.. 25th question will be the last for today, rest will be answered on Sunday.

Q. Though Bajirao Mastani might have won the clash domestically. Still Dilwale is far more profitable then Bajirao. Don’t you think verdict of Dilwale will be same as Bajirao Mastani?

Click here to read answer